挽弓當挽強, 擒賊先擒王

馬甲：雲悠

時間：06-02-04 16:14:30

股市大官園熱鬧非繁, 天天象過年, 也長了不少見識. 縱觀股談大事, A說ABC, B講BCD, 使我等新手, 頭如撥浪鼓, 左聽右看, 脖子都歪了, 匝個還是一團謎誤呢哩.

俺想同各位大蝦小蟹, 由其是high hands, 虛心探討一番, 多多指教.  小股散兵, 資金有限, 集中兵力, 尤其重要.  試想古今中外, 有幾位大將能做到知己知彼, 四處出擊,而又大獲全勝呢. 更何況俺們肉眼凡胎, 多數情況隻能撿些MM留下的殘羹剩飯. 俺的觀點, 完全以分散風險為名去買不知彼的個股有點自欺欺人. 聽聽俺的對不對.

With limited financial resources, focus is critical.

首先要看好industry. Oil and gas has been good, and may still remain so for a long time. Gold is still not bad too.   However, alternative energy (替代能源) is just at its infancy, and may experience 爆炸式增長. 為舍子呢? Energy shortage, global warming, we all know. In the solar area, both STP and SPWR expanded their manufacturing capacity by multi-folds in a short time, and CA passed energy bill providing subsidies encouraging solar panels usage, etc, all points to the same trend. 盡管小布的國情谘文演講提到的用於alternative energy R&D 資金 還太少, 但這仍是一個很好的開端. 橫望這市場, 目前正處戰國初期, 正所謂狼煙四起, 諸侯割鋸. 誰是未來的秦國, 還難以予料. In the competitive landscape, there is not much competition yet as the market is simply too big for anyone to dominate at this moment. Ethanol, fuel cell, solar, wind, etc.  有道曰, 亂世出英雄.

這也是大家需要共同努力的呀. 耳聽六路, 眼觀八方, 財富出於勤奮. 俺對目前大盤不甚明白. 策略是主力部隊養精旭銳, 拭目以待. 若硬要出手, 也應出小股奇兵. 贏可少量增員, 擴大戰果. 輸者立即撤回. 看官要問了, 那何時動做呀, 俺可急死了. 甭急, 麵包會有的. 俺信奉的語錄是, 擰肯不贏, 但不能丟本. 懂TA的大蝦應該發言了. 俺們農民想法簡單, 不見兔子不撒鷹. For instance, in fall 1996, Intel's Pentium was selling like a hot cake. From a friend working in a PC shop, an learned Pentium chips were in very tight supply. No wonder, INTC 一日長十的往上串, MSFT 那時也是牛氣衝天. 近處來看, 2005 AAPL iPod nano 橫殺出世, 各大retailers 也頻頻告捷. 這些都是出手的極好機會.

正所謂不出則已 (休熄一年半載), 出拳一招就擊中七寸.

Remember, 怕就怕平時兵力過於分散, 整日疲於拚命, 該合拳時已無能為力 (套牢).俺們農民進趟城也不易, 兄弟姐妹若同意給鼓個掌, 不同意給提個醒.

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