每日市場點評 --- April 29, 2008

The market continued to behave in a rather lacklustre mood ahead of tomorrow’s closely watched GDP report and Fed’s interest rate decision. Similar to yesterday, all three major indices spent most time hovering around the unchanged level and closed within 0.4% from the previous session. The Dow Transportation Average continued to be a star performer and closed at a new high for this year. Year to date, that index is up an impressive 14% compared to a 5% drop in the broad S&P500 index. The news on the economic front didn’t provide much relief to investors. The Consumer Confidence index fell to 62.3, the lowest in five years. In a separated report, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index posted a record 12.7% y-o-y decline in the 20-city composite. And it is very likely we are going to see even worse readings in the months ahead given the relatively high inventory to sales level. On the positive side, most earnings news of the day continued to beat market consensus, easing concerns of a sharp slowdown in corporate profits.

Transportations and technologies were among the noticeable winners for the day. Commodities, on the other hand, pulled back rather significantly. Apparently more rotation is ongoing as money moved out of the previously hot commodity sectors and piled into some tech momentum names, including the “Big Four” --- Google, Apple, Bidu and Rimm. The CRB commodity index suffered a big loss for the day and was down almost 2% in face of continuing strength in the US dollar. The US dollar moved higher against most major currencies. Treasuries rallied slightly following the weak economic news. One encouraging sign in the credit market is the rally in the high-yield bonds, which has brought the yields down by around 200 bps since Mar 17th. Of course, the market can easily change course following tomorrow’s Fed decision. Tomorrow also marks the last day of April, which is on track to be the first month that the market registers a gain since last October, so some window-dressing activities should be expected.