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理解國際政治

(2007-03-28 23:42:43) 下一個
理解國際政治

A. This world can be stratified into 4 tiers.

The first tire is the Western English-spoken countries: the U.S., Briton, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Their aim is to subdue others in order to maintain their cultural and economical dominance in the world. They lable themselves as the advanced civilization under the banner of humanity, freedom, and democracy. In every contemporary war, they united and fought together against their foes. In most recent cases, such as Iraq and Afghan, they are evidently the most active forces, which self-label themselves as most just, humane, and peaceful forces to liberate the suffered.

The second tier is German, France, Spain, other western countries. Because there has been a tradition in the colony time: Whiteman has a share. If there is no significant conflict among 1st tier and 2nd, they always work together to maintain their world dominance in the perspective of their race and the western tradition (which can be traced back to the crusade).

Third tier is Japan, S. Korea, Israel, and any other small countries who want to gain something, to fulfill their ambition, or to make friends with the 1st and 2nd(they, them, or their) for their future protection. Noticeably, S. Korea sent far more troops to support the U.S. grand missions than Japan, either in Iraq and middle Asian countries.

The forth is the small, poor, weak countries with certain resource. These countries are Iraq, Iran, Afghan, Sudan, Yugoslavia, Middle-east countries, central Americas, and African countries. the forth were, or will be either to be butchered, subdued to the servant status, or ruined down to the savage status in the name of God, according to the first’s roadmap of interest, timing, and opportunity.

The fifth is the big, powerful countries, which are either in the way of the 1st and 2nd ‘s interest advancement or competing forces. These countries are Russia, China, and India. In essence, these countries are their deadly enemies, so that there are no chances for enemies to become allies by nature. The fifth should be dealt with the same as the forth. As the fifth are too big, time, opportunity, and patience are the keys in the game-play and in certain occasion, some of them can be used by the dominant power.

As Russian missiles, combat airplanes, submarines, space technology, etc. are even more advanced than those of the U.S., the dominant just ‘decently’ shut up themselves when Russia sold nuclear reactor to Iran. Instead, they blame Iran for the wrongdoing. As for China, its weaponry is mediocre and the internal unity is problematic. So the allies of circulation have been formed, including Japan, S. Korea, Philippine, and India. Without Iraq war, China is their first priority to be dealt with. This is exactly what has happened to China before Iraq war.

B. The changing of the world dynamics.

As the cold war has ended, the power has dramatically polarized towards the dominant power. Therefore, the dominant has launched their re-engineering projects to re-shape the world-map in their favor. This is what has happened in the middle-east and Africa. Bush and Blair are chief engineers of the projects.

If the EU becomes a powerful block, Briton will be marginalized in Europe and the U.S. weight less there. If China becomes so, the U.S. will be marginalized too. When China becomes economically powerful and nationalistically knitted, the Russia, Japan, and India will naturally try to move closer to China, so that these countries will form a closely tightened block. Consequently the dominant will lose its prestige in that region, which means serious problems and challenges to it: its economic interest and sustainable dominance to the world.

The standoff is: one side has powerful weaponry, economical clout, strong allies, and the blessing of God, while another side has 1.3 billion people striving for better life and dignity, and bearing a mind of their ancestral pride. According to the western notion, if you want to achieve a win-win, you must win first, rather than unconditionally compromising.

Understanding is power.
Do you really understand your counterparts well? What is the nature of them? What is the goal of win in their minds? Understanding is power. Then you know how to play the game.

"The ideal man bears the accidents of life with dignity and grace, making the best of circumstances."
Aristotle

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