蘆笛在中東北非問題上的無知

在這個伊斯蘭世界流行花兒革命的年代, 知名的網絡評論家蘆笛同誌自然少不了激揚文字, 於是有了他發在這裏的一則奇文, 下麵簡評一下文中的幾段高論：

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布什企圖將文明生活方式強行注入爛汙國家，隻會步那些先在中國、後在南越奮勇攪屎的老前輩的後塵，使得伊拉克、阿富汗等國更加陷入水深火熱之中。

問題在於, 阿富汗本來就是塔利班(而不是“薩世俗達姆”)掌權, 現在哪一點能比當時更“水深火熱”? (蘆笛讚美塔利班一旦掌握政權就嚴禁種植鴉片, 為世界禁毒事業作出巨大貢獻, 這當然又把人雷得不輕, 如果你知道安理會第1267號與1333號決議內容的話。)

再看看下麵這段：

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在可預見的將來，那些爛國家是不可能建立起民主製度來的，回回國家尤其如此...從這個角度來看...蘇丹等地發生的人民革命，對美國乃至整個文明世界來說都未必是福音... ...最能有效地收拾恐怖分子的，正是中東那些獨裁者，已故伊拉克總統薩達姆就是一位。

蘆笛在此居然把蘇丹政權說成是世俗化的, 把南部的基督教黑人當成恐怖分子, 的確是語不雷人死不休了。

但是他也不得不這樣睜眼說瞎話, 因為早在克林頓任內, 中情局每年給國會的報告都說伊拉克幫助蘇丹發展化學武器。

In the WMD arena, Sudan has been developing the capability to produce chemical weapons for many years. In this pursuit, it has obtained help from entities in other countries, principally Iraq. Given its history in developing chemical weapons and its close relationship with Iraq, Sudan may be interested in a BW program as well.

事實上, 薩達姆政權輸出WMD技術的對象還包括利比亞(注意當時卡紮菲還在積極投資國際恐怖主義業務)：

CIA analysts noted that “several hundred” Iraqi chemical and biological weapons experts had been in Libya during the decade preceding the disclosures.

關於蘇丹南部叛軍與北部政權誰更“世俗化”, 請看911委員會報告：

Bin Ladin agreed to help Turabi in an ongoing war against African Christian separatists in southern Sudan and also to do some road building. Turabi in return would let Bin Ladin use Sudan as a base for worldwide business operations and for preparations for jihad.

如果懷疑以上資料已失去時效性(或許Bashir已經像卡紮菲那樣“從良”了), 請看國務院的2010 Human Rights Report：

Sudan, a republic with an estimated population of 40 million, is governed according to a power-sharing arrangement established by the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended the 22-year civil war between the North and South and established an interim Government of National Unity (GNU). The GNU is composed of the National Congress Party (NCP), dominated by Islamists from the North and ruled by authoritarian President Omar Hassan al-Bashir and his inner circle, and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), led predominantly by Christians and practitioners of traditional indigenous religions from the South.

蘆笛把蘇丹南部那些信基督教或原始拜物教的黑人視為恐怖分子, 希望那位推行伊斯蘭法律的巴希爾總統“收拾”掉他們, 這就是一個liberal的良心。

蘆笛同誌又曰：

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回回恐怖分子的最大克星, 不是美國也不是歐洲任何一個國家, 而是他們本國政府。最害怕也最能有效地收拾恐怖分子的, 正是中東那些獨裁者, 已故伊拉克總統薩達姆就是一位。

且不說上麵提到的蘇丹問題, 既然薩達姆同學這麽有才, 哥就不懂紮卡維(Abu Musab Zarqawi)怎麽能在巴格達一住就是6個月(02年5月到11月),  約旦情報部門早在當年6月就把紮卡維的下落通知了薩達姆。約旦國王在說謊嗎? 動機何在? 不是說扳倒了薩達姆就會讓恐怖分子掌控伊拉克嗎, 約旦這個小國為什麽要引火燒身? 更早的時侯(1993年), 科威特又何苦要“誣陷”薩達姆暗殺老布什----這在當時導致美國70%的人讚同消滅薩氏政權, 不是說中東的維穩工作離了薩達姆不行嗎？

紮卡維(QI.A.131.03. Ahmad Fadil Nazal al-Khalayleh)及其同夥Abu Ayyub al-Masri當年在巴格達爽了那麽久, 凡有腦子的人都知道一定有薩達姆的默許(被捕的基地重要頭目Abu Zubaydah承認紮卡維"had good relationships with Iraqi Intelligence")。Masri作為Egyptian Islamic Jihad的高級指揮, 於紮卡維死後成為伊拉克基地組織實際上的頭號人物, 但為了讓“反美武裝”看上去本土化, 便扶植了一個傀儡人物Omar al-Baghdadi充當Islamic State of Iraq的最高領袖。這二位不負重望, 於2010年4月在薩達姆的家鄉提克裏特被伊安全部隊擊斃。

前中情局主任George Tenet在其07年出版的回憶錄裏寫道：

What was even more worrisome was that by the spring and summer of 2002, more than a dozen al-Qa'ida-affiliated extremists converged on Baghdad, with apparently no harassment on the part of the Iraqi government. They had found a comfortable and secure environment in which they moved people and supplies to support Zarqawi's operations in northeastern Iraq.
... ...
More al-Qa'ida operatives would follow, including Thirwat Shihata and Yussef Dardiri[A.k.a. Abu Ayyub al-Masri], two Egyptians assessed by a senior al-Qa'ida detainee to be among the Egyptian Islamic Jihad's best operational planners, who arrived by mid-May of 2002. At times we lost track of them, though their associates continued to operate in Baghdad as of October 2002. Their activity in sending recruits to train in Zarqawi's camps was compelling enough.

There was also concern that these two might be planning operations outside Iraq. Credible information told us that Shihata was willing to strike U.S., Israeli, and Egyptian targets sometime in the future. Shihata had been linked to terrorist operations in North Africa, and while in Afghanistan he had trained North Africans in the use of truck bombs.

以上內容(以及鮑威爾在聯合國講話的同類部分)是戰後被情報部門認可的, 隻不過被主流媒體無視了而已, 那些聽到個別人名身體就有反應的同誌可以歇著了。

The CIA has not published a "fully researched, coordinated and approved position" on the postwar reporting on the former regime's links to al-Qa'ida, but has published such a paper on the postwar reporting of Abu Mus'ad al-Zarqawi and the former regime (see above). The CIA told the Committee that regarding Iraq's links to terrorism, "the research the Counterterrorist Center has done on this issue has called into question some of the reports of contacts and training...revealed other contacts of which we were unaware, and shed new light on some contacts that appeared in prewar reporting. On balance, this research suggests that the prewar judgment remains valid."

維基解密刊登的一份文件顯示：Jawad Jabber Sadkhan(拘押序列號: US9IZ-000433DP)---塔利班的高級情報主管和軍事指揮官---是一位伊拉克情報官員; 據其同夥供認, 此人“admitted working as a liaison between Taliban Intelligence Directorate and Iraqi President, Saddam Hussein”。不出所料, 這個信息不符合“薩達姆高度世俗化絕不可能跟基地合作”的主旋律, 再次被媒體團結一致給無視了。

根據911委員會報告, 基地二號人物(也是Egyptian Islamic Jihad領袖)紮瓦赫裏“had ties of his own to the Iraqis”。西點反恐中心披露的一份基地組織內部文件(AFGP-2002-601693)顯示：此人1998年訪問了伊拉克。顯然紮卡維與Masri在巴格達的長住也沒什麽值得驚詫的了。

Aymen went to Iraq and Iran, and now he told Abu Mujahid Al-Filistini that he regretted writing “Al Hasad Al Mur” (Bitter Envy) and thinks that he rushed in writing it.

這位Aymen顯然就是Ayman al-Zawahiri, 因為文件中說他是“the leader of Jihadists in Peshwar Pakistan”, 並且寫了Al Hasad Al Mur(The Bitter Harvest)。他與薩達姆的勾結由來已久, 一份繳獲的前政權機密文件(ISGP-2003-00300189)寫道“We agreed on a plan to move against the Egyptian regime by doing martyr operations on conditions that we should secure the finance, training and equipment.” 。  

利比亞問題上, 蘆笛還在唱同一首歌, 他連敘利亞是伊朗最大盟友這一常識都毫無所知(奧巴馬在最近的講話裏也提到"Syria has followed its Iranian ally, seeking assistance from Tehran in the tactics of suppression."), 當然對於整個中東北非的恐怖主義問題也隻能胡扯了。敘利亞空軍直接幫助老卡“平暴”, 這已被媒體廣泛報導; 與此同時, 伊朗黨衛軍也已經接管了敘軍指揮權---請看Executive Order 13572---財政部針對參與敘利亞鎮壓的個人和機構的製裁名單---伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊(Qods Force)光榮上榜, 其指揮官Qasem Soleimani與另一位高幹Mohsen Chizari都已被正式列為製裁對象(見財政部官網的聲明)。巴沙爾·阿薩德如今為了保住政權, 已經不惜給哈·沒內衣(Seyyed Ali Khamenei)作兒皇帝, 虧還有人對這些“反恐精英”舔個沒完。 

在這些善解人意的“公知”眼中, 卡紮菲之流抓幾個恐怖分子就是大功一件, 一口氣放掉上百聖戰分子(包括美國移交的原關塔拿摩在押人員)就是迫於無奈, 利比亞成了伊拉克外國聖戰分子的第二大供應商, 也不是卡紮菲的錯(那些人是從班加西來的嘛,不關老卡和敘利亞的事嘛,再說老卡還是采取了措施嘛----就是另外放出80多名穆斯林兄弟會成員,據說可以靠它們感化那些聖鬥士), 他滿世界灑錢搞什麽“伊斯蘭文化中心”、通過World Islamic Call Society成為穆斯林兄弟會的大金主, 乃至雇基地組織成員暗殺沙特領導人... ...這些都不要緊, 他永遠是蘆笛心中的世界和平衛士。

最後, 欣賞一下“反恐帝”卡紮菲06年在卡塔爾半島台的重要講話----他說現在歐洲有5000萬回子, 土耳其被納入歐盟後又加了五千萬, 歐洲的綠化指日可待。當然, 上校念念不忘的還有統一非洲大陸, 為了這個目標他瘋狂的燒錢和輸出動亂; 老子革命兒好漢, 其公子Hannibal當年也揚言要“核平”瑞士(“If I had an atomic bomb I would wipe Switzerland off the map”)。如今自家的窩先被強拆, 真是情何以堪, 願老人家在FARC女戰士那裏得到撫慰。