CYCLE OF CHANGE

CYCLE OF CHANGE

While cars are rapidly outstripping bicycles in popularity, it may be premature to announce the demise of this once favored mode of transport

By ZHANG ZHIPING

While huge teams of bicyclists are no longer a common scene in China, long lines of cars can be seen everywhere. But does this mean that bicycles will cease to be a major mode of transport in the country?

Bicycles used to be the most important vehicle for ordinary Chinese people, and the frequent images of masses of cyclists gained China the nickname of the “Bicycle Kingdom.” However, bicycles are now being pushed aside by cars and expanding highways, and in some cities they are even blamed for traffic jams. It seems that bicycles are fated to be abandoned sooner or later.

Li Sen is a staff member at the Ministry of Construction, who came to Beijing 20 years ago. He said he could not recall when he last used his bicycle but he still remembered clearly that he spent his first salary on a bike, with which he was able to bike to the Tiananmen Square occasionally.

At the time, with few cars, Beijing’s streets were free of exhaust fumes and it was such a pleasure to travel by bike, he said.

But, since he bought a car five years ago, Li has totally given up his bicycle. In fact, even before he bought the car, he had already found it a hassle to ride a bicycle to work. Due to the rapid construction of the capital city, roadways are being made wider and wider while bicycle lanes are being squeezed. Besides, the air is much worse because of the exhaust gases.

The car fails to bring an end to Li’s annoying journey to work. Frequent traffic jams have become a big headache since he acquired a car.

Li’s experience is quite typical in many cities. Since the 1980s, the number of cars has increased along the quick pace of the urbanization. Statistics show that before the 1980s, China’s urbanization rate only stood at 19 percent, but now it has grown to 30 percent and is expected to rise to 50 percent by 2010.

China is now home to 60 million cars. The number is growing by 10 percent annually and is forecast to jump to 130 million by 2010. Beijing alone will see thousands of new cars every day.

The rapidly rising number of cars is in contrast to shrinking bicycle use. According to statistics from the Chinese Cycling Association, in 1998, there were 180 bicycles for every 100 households, a figure that has now dropped to 140.

Ten years ago, 60 percent of Beijing’s residents went to work by bike, while only 20 percent do so currently. Some even predict that bicycles are doomed to be replaced by cars, leading to the extinction of the “Bicycle Kingdom.”

Nevertheless, some believe that the access to more types of transportation does not necessarily mean that bicycles will be given up. An improved awareness of environmental protection and health will encourage some people to turn back to this noiseless, pollution-free vehicle that also helps to keep them physically fit. Furthermore, it’s still possible for bicycles to attract more and more young people with their fascination with extreme sports and other activities.

An irreplaceable vehicle?

The increasingly striking traffic problem in big cities is now a headache facing countries all over the world. This problem is even more serious in China, a developing country. Although private car ownership is still limited to a small number of people, the swelling populations in cities, outdated public transport systems and poor management have resulted in serious traffic problems and environmental pollution. In south China’s Guangzhou, cars account for 87 percent of carbon monoxide emissions and 67 percent of nitrogen dioxide emissions.

At present, apart from Beijing, such big cities as Shanghai, Wuhan, Xi’an and Guangzhou are also plagued by frequent traffic jams. In China’s megacities, the average speed of cars has dropped to 12 km per hour from 20 in the 1980s. Economic losses resulting from traffic jams have amounted to tens of millions of yuan.

The problem in China is that cars have become popular in heavily populated cities while traffic systems are still underdeveloped. China’s relatively abrupt opening to the world means that it has become easier for people to benefit from the modern transnational auto industry, although urban areas have not had time to adjust to this pattern.

In recent years, while the Chinese Government has attached great importance to the development of expressways, its input in urban traffic systems has been inadequate. And the underdevelopment of urban street networks is the major reason for the frequent traffic jams.

According to Li Jing, an academician from the Chinese Academy of Engineering, due to limited resources and space, it is not realistic for China to encourage private ownership of cars. A U.S. consulting company calculated that if in China there was a car for every 1.3 people, as in the United States, China would have 900 million cars, making up 40 percent of the world’s total, and they would consume 5 million tons of oil, or 20 percent of world oil output. Clearly, China is incapable of supplying so much energy.

In the United States, one third of the land in cities is allocated to roads and parking lots, but with a large population and extremely limited land area, it is impossible for China to contribute so much land to cars. A survey shows that the average life expectancy of people living in cities with little or no pollution is 26 percent longer than those in heavily polluted areas. Therefore, a clean environment also demands the restriction of private cars.

The European Car Free Day, launched in 2001, now involves nearly 800 European cities. In Germany, colorful bicycles create beautiful scenes in its cities and the German Government even offers special services to those who use bicycles.

But is it advisable for China to copy what Europe is doing? Bao Xiaowen, with Huazhong Normal University, believes that as non-polluting, low-cost and convenient vehicles, bicycles have an irreplaceable role in China’s urban traffic system. In most cities, 50-60 percent of the urban traffic still relies on bicycles.

A new emphasis

ALTERNATIVE OPTION: Against Beijing’s heavy traffic today, the bicycle proves to be more convenient for short-distance trip

People also are expected to use bicycles in various new ways. The Beijing Hanglun Cycling Club is dedicated to bicycle excursions and mountain bike events. It is composed of more than 200 teams, each with 20 to 50 bicycle fans. Apart from Beijing, Tianjin, Xiamen and Chengdu also have large-scale bicycle organizations.

Bicycles, which were once regarded as symbols of backwardness, are now again playing important roles.

A new bicycle lane in Shanghai’s Yangpu District, which cost the district 5 million yuan ($625,000), was opened on September 15, 2005. The lane is 2.2 meters to 2.4 meters wide and runs about 2 km. It is Shanghai’s first road built using epoxy resin, a non-skid surface that is expected to greatly reduce traffic accidents.

According to the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Urban Planning, in order to deal with traffic problems occurring in the process of urban development, experts and relevant departments have recently put forward certain ways to solve this problem in the old city of Beijing. The report stressed the importance of bicycles as an environmentally friendly vehicle.

After four years of debates, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Public Security announced that the ban on “electric,” or battery-operated, bicycles, instituted in 2002, was to be ended on January 4, 2006. This was viewed as evidence of a change in the municipal government’s “pro-car” policy, since the vehicle consistently has been a subject of dispute.

Those who oppose the vehicle argue that their batteries are hard to dispose of, while the vehicles’ rapid speed is a problem for the traffic police. Some local governments are concerned about the vehicles’ image, fearing that they would make cities seem outdated and backward. Thus, although 15 million people use them, bans on electric bicycles are still imposed around the country.

On the plus side is market demand. With China under pressure from pollution and energy shortages, the electric bicycle is a better choice than cars in terms of protecting the environment and saving energy. Moreover, used batteries from these bicycles are less harmful than exhaust from cars. And the relatively low price of electric bicycles puts them within the reach of ordinary Chinese people.

The Law on Traffic Road Safety, which came into force on May 1, 2004, granted the electric bicycle a legal identity--“non-motor car”--and stipulated that whether this vehicle is allowed to be registered and used is to be decided by local provincial, autonomous regional and municipal governments.

As the most influential action since the implementation of the law, the end of the ban on electric bicycles in Beijing may set an example for areas that still maintain the ban in the hope of protecting the environment.

走向消亡的自行車王國？

昔日滾滾的自行車流正在消失，取而代之的是汽車“長龍”。
自行車是否就此退出曆史舞台？

張誌萍

曾經，自行車是中國人的主要出行工具，浩浩蕩蕩的自行車大軍成為了中國城市的一大獨特景觀，中國也因此有了自行車王國的稱號。但是現在越來越多的汽車和為它們加寬的道路將自行車逼到了越來越窄的自行車道甚至是人行道上。在一些大中城市，交通越來越擁堵，自行車甚至還擔著交通不暢的罪魁的惡名，自行車似乎正在被人們遺棄。

在國家建設部工作的李森已經不記得他最後一次騎自行車是什麽時候了。20年前他大學畢業後來北京工作，一下火車就喜歡上了這個城市。他覺得那時候北京寬闊的街道如長安街寬闊得很有氣勢，狹窄的小巷如一些小胡同則狹窄得有人情味；許多建築紅牆綠瓦灰色的主體顯得很氣派；除了每年的春天要刮幾天沙塵暴，黃沙彌漫，能見度極低，平常日子基本上都是空氣清新，陽光燦爛。拿了第一個月的工資後他立即去買了一輛自行車，然後騎著它去天安門廣場逛了一圈，當時正值秋季，是北京一年當中最好的季節，藍天白雲，秋高氣爽，馬路上車輛不多，也不存在尾氣汙染，騎車在北京的街道上，讓他感到身心舒暢。在接下來的將近10年裏，他搬過好幾次住處，無論離工作的地方是遠是近，北京最初留給他的美好印象讓他一直保持著騎車上下班的習慣，最長的時候他需要騎40多分鍾的路程。

5年前李森買了一輛汽車，徹底退出了騎車上班族。而在此之前其實他就已經不大騎車上班了，並不是因為他厭倦了騎車，而是他越來越覺得騎車在北京已不再是一個享受。隨著城市建設步伐的加快，許多路都在拓寬，而自行車道卻越變越窄，胡同裏開始被停放的汽車塞滿，變得行走困難；汽車越來越多，尾氣也越來越多，加上工業汙染，天高雲淡的日子越來越少了，天空中經常被濃霧所籠罩，整個城市開始為每年能達到一定的“藍天數”而努力。現在李森開車上下班，堵車成了他的一大煩心事。昔日滾滾的自行車洪流景觀正在被汽車“長龍”所取代。李森感到了為難，他想回到過去，但是北京已不是當年的北京了。

李森的經曆在一些大中城市裏很有代表性。上個世紀八十代改革開放以來，中國城市化與汽車化發展十分迅猛。數據顯示：改革開放前，城市化水平不足19%，目前已經發展到超過30%，預測2010年將接近50%；機動車擁有量目前已達6000萬輛，並以每年10%以上的速度增長，預計2010年達到1.3億多輛。

單單在北京，每天就有上千輛新汽車上路。而騎車人的數量卻日益減少。據中國自行車協會統計，進入21世紀，中國城鎮居民每百戶自行車擁有量已從1998年的180多輛下降到了140多輛。如今，北京每天騎自行車往返於單位和家庭之間的人已從10多年前的60%下降到20%。

有專家說，這是因為城市的發展讓人們出行的方式有了多種選擇的結果。有人甚至預言，隨著汽車以空前的速度增加，發動機命中注定是要勝過腳蹬子的，自行車王國正在走向消亡。

然而也有人不這麽認為，交通方式的多元化並不意味著自行車將被中國人徹底拋棄，隨著中國人環保、健身意識的增強，一部分人還會重新選擇這種沒有噪音、汙染和健康的交通工具；另外，自行車的運動作用和自行車極限運動的獨特魅力，都將吸引越來越多年輕人更加親近自行車。

不可替代的交通工具

一項來自中國社會科學院工業經濟研究所的研究報告表明，日益突出的大城市交通問題是當今世界各國所麵臨的共同難題。

尤其是像中國這樣的發展中國家，盡管目前汽車的普及程度還不高，但由於大城市規模的迅速擴張，大量人口和產業活動集中在狹小的市中心區，加上城市公共交通嚴重滯後，交通管理不善，城市機動車迅速增長造成的交通擁擠和環境汙染問題絲毫不遜於一些發達國家。

目前不僅在北京，目前，在中國上海、武漢、西安、廣州等超大城市，交通堵塞現象已日趨白熱化，成為影響城市經濟發展的重要製約因素。中國特大城市市區機動車平均時速已由上世紀八十年代的20公裏左右下降到現在的12公裏左右。在一些大城市中心地區，機動車平均時速已下降到每小時8到10公裏。中國每年因城市交通不暢，運輸效率下降，造成經濟損失達數百億元。

廣州市與交通有關的排放占一氧化碳總排放的87%和二氧化氮總排放的67%。據國際衛生組織1998年公布的調查報告顯示，在全球空氣汙染最嚴重的10個城市中，中國就占了7個，包括太原、北京、烏魯木齊、蘭州、重慶、濟南、石家莊。

從經濟發展的環境看，中國的大城市在機動車化之前，就已形成了高人口密度的城市結構。同時，中國城市在改革開放後突然麵對的是一個完全成熟的現代跨國汽車工業，城市居民超前享受著高技術帶來的物質成果。這就意味著中國的城市將沒有機會像倫敦、紐約、波士頓等城市那樣，有一個相對較緩慢的城市交通係統與汽車工業技術相互適應與進化的過程，更不可能出現像洛杉磯那種專為轎車化社會而設計的城市。

尤其是，近年來中國一些大城市在舊城改造的過程中，往往突破規劃控製指標，侵占城市綠地、廣場，導致建築與人口過度密集，市區人流、車流集中，從而加劇了城市交通擁擠和環境汙染狀況。

在投資政策方麵，近年來中國政府特別重視高速公路的發展，而對城市道路係統的規劃建設投入不足。城市道路數量嚴重不足，路網密度較低，這是導致大城市交通擁擠的重要原因之一。

中國工程院院士李京文認為，中國的客觀資源與環境決定，私家車不能成為交通主流。

美國現在是1.3個人一輛汽車，一家美國谘詢公司作了如此推算，如果按照美國的標準計算，那麽中國國土上走的汽車將超過9億輛，石油需求量將超過50億噸，即汽車總量將超過目前世界總量的40%，石油消耗量將超過世界石油總產量的20%，中國沒有這樣的能源供應能力；

其次，在美國的大城市，一般要用1/3的城市土地用於修路及建造停車場，而中國是人多、可用地奇缺，土地不允許；

第三，據國外一項調查，城市汙染少的地方人均壽命比汙染嚴重的地方延長足足26%，從人性化角度考慮，環境不允許。

從2001年開始，歐盟每年都發起“歐洲無汽車日”活動，得到了歐洲約800個城市的響應。現在，在德國的任何一個城市，鮮豔的自行車道就像一條條彩帶鑲嵌在道路的兩側，德國政府甚至還為騎自行車的人提供了人性化的服務。

歐洲鼓勵的自行車交通，中國是否能照搬？華東師大博士包曉雯認為，中國城市交通區別於國外的一個重要的特征就是大量的自行車交通，許多城市出行的比例達到了50%至60%。自行車作為一個無汙染、低成本、方便靈活的一個交通工具，具有不可替代的作用。

自行車時代還會回來嗎？

伴隨著中國人對自行車的使用的全新認識，自行車還會以不同的方式回到人們的身邊。

北京航輪自行車俱樂部是一家專門組織會員進行自行車集體郊遊、山地車攀爬比賽、山地車速降比賽的俱樂部。負責人張榮秦介紹，這家俱樂部擁有200多支會員車隊，每支隊的人數從20人到50人不等，他們在體驗自行車帶給他們的全新樂趣。在北京以外的地方，天津、廈門、成都等地也都有規模很大的民間自行車運動組織。

最近，一些跡象也表明曾經一度被視為城市落後特征的自行車大軍重新回到了管理者的視野之中。

　　2005年9月15日上海市楊浦區斥資500萬元鋪設的彩色道板的非機動車道正式啟用。此條彩色非機動車道道寬2.2米～2.4米，全長近兩公裏。這是上海第一條采用環氧樹脂技術的車道，此材料麵薄、防滑、綠色，可有效降低交通事故的發生頻率。

　　據北京市規劃委稱，針對城市發展進程中的交通問題，近期他們組織了有關交通專家和相關部門進行研究，提出了解決北京舊城交通問題的發展策略。這份研究報告提出，自行車交通方式仍然是城市交通中不可忽視的組成部分。由於自行車是一種環保型的交通方式，應給自行車交通方式保留適當的空間。

在經曆了4年的爭論之後，2006年年初，北京市公安局發布了一項命令宣布從1月4日起解除自2002年以來對電動自行車的禁令。這一舉動被看成是政府“親汽車政策”的改變。

電動自行車從誕生的那一天起，就被視為另類，備受懷疑和歧視。關於“禁”?還是“放”的爭論就一直伴隨著中國電動自行車發展的始終。

“放”的理由很充分，那就是市場需求。中國自行車協會賈剛說，中國麵臨著嚴峻的環保和能源緊張的壓力，電動自行車無論是在節能還是環保方麵都比目前的汽車更有優勢。它使用的電池的危害也比汽車排放的尾氣的危害要小得多。而且其相對經濟的價格也符合當前中國居民的消費能力。

而“禁”的理由，電動自行車的電池很難進行處理，它的速度過快不便管理。另外對一味追求城市形象的一些地方政府來說，電動自行車意味著落後，汽車則代表著發展。

在全國有著1500多萬人在騎電動自行車的情況下，還是不斷有城市出台禁令。

2004年5月1日實施的《道路交通安全法》，賦予電動自行車一個明確的法律身份－“非機動車”，並規定，電動自行車能否登記上路，由各省、自治區、直轄市根據當地實際情況規定。北京市的“解禁”，是該法實施後影響力最大的一次實驗，也受到了最多的關注。也許此舉能還在實行禁令的地方起到一個環保的示範作用。