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young men, go home; old fellows, get involved

(2006-11-20 21:20:30) 下一個
China is in the era of miracles,

As the primary beneficiary of world peace and free trade policy, China has caught up with the developed world in terms of physical wealth creating, property development is by far the leader of the world, on manufacturing it has started to supply the whole world,

most of the so-called "service economy" in the western world are actually expensive maintenance... even in its best representative, US, there are about 100m people working, while in China the number may be 800m, and the productivity gap is fast shrinking due to the computer and internet revolutions,

no doubt US invented most of that, but China might end up being the biggest beneficiary again. In a few short years, computer and internet moved more knowledge and ideas and concepts to China than probably all the prior history combined.

the world history has been that the best countries are one who stand on the shoulder of the others. Chinese invented paper but German made the best used of it by inventing the press machine, and thus the massive production of book.

it might as well be China's turn, if China doesn't squander its precious chance, for example, moving to pro-military confrontational direction as some of the young pseudo-intellectual daydream about. Unless those kind of colossal stupidity happens, China will be _the_ platform for young, fearless, unchained, unbounded minds.


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there will be other challenges as well. For example, like US in 1999, China is being washed over by the world's hot money. In 2 years there might be a very good wake up call.

but overall it's a miracle creating time. We know all the BIDU, STP, CTRP, FMCN, NTES, EDU, heck, even the HMIN is a billion dollar company now. Of course there are bubbles, but by and large, China earned its current premium valuation.

and it's only the beginning,

if you can prevent the "hit the lotto overnight" mentality, Long China is the investment theme for the next few years,
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I might stay off for a while from this forum. Enjoyed sharing some time with all the fellows here. Got very stressed lately. Will go to China again for a short trip next week.

I remember I due to this forum a "the Great China Leap" post. Will finished that after the trip.

wish everyone see his/her China dream be fulfilled,

take care
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