財經觀察 1345 --- 10 links to walk you through today’s financial cri

讓你度過金融危機的十個必看鏈接


關於當前經濟形勢評論，以及一些基本的理財理念。當然，更重要的是：鏈接，還有由此引出的廣泛閱讀及獨立思考的好習慣。

最近我收到了很多關於經濟和緊急救助的郵件，所以我想把近兩個星期度過的文章列出來。我也加上了自己的評論，還有相關鏈接以作為評論的支撐。我想：如果你讀了這些鏈接，你會比大街上的絕大多數人都能理解經濟。（最近總有些傻瓜，他們認為未來的美國會1.銀行破產，2.收回全國的抵押，3.經濟會崩潰）

1.忘了那些憑感覺的媒體

有人找出了在緊急救助時期最好的一篇報道，在我寫《真惡心 媒體的預測能力太差了》一文時，我標出了各種媒體是如何大膽提出預測的，這些預測完全錯誤，而且永遠無法自圓其說。

在這個例子，財富雜誌強力推薦AIG為“10大現在值得買入的股票”，這個他們後來道歉了。而在他們刊出“2008年最佳股票”中，美林赫然在列。

2.讓人驚訝的對衝基金

這個讓人吃驚不小，我是說——在糟糕的方麵：對衝基金做好準備應對投資者贖回，很多人都沒有聽說過對衝基金的贖回條款，基本上，它說的是，財務投資者今天就可以拿回他們的錢。如果此事真的發生，沒有人會知道有什麽反應，可能它們會很慘。我寫過一篇《為什麽對衝基金被投資者高估》。

3.我們太健忘了

如果你認為曆史不是簡單的重複，你錯了。事實上，10年前的這個月，長期投資管理者，一個對衝基金，差點造成全球經濟崩潰。今天，我們又被同一個詞匯所包圍，真的有人相信投資銀行家在未來不會再拿高薪？或者我們不會逐漸回到那種主管拿高薪的時代？就像我上個星期所說的，沒有人真的在乎散戶，起作用的是選擇正確的策略並且堅持執行。

4.我們能從巴菲特哪裏學到什麽

這裏有一份很長的巴菲特訪談，它能教你很多關於長線投資，肯定你所知以及你所未知。而我，剛剛訂購了這本巴菲特的新書。

5.你應該買入？賣出？或者幹點別的？

“我應該贖回我的401基金”，在10個人發給我這個鏈接後，我明白自己應該仔細看看。這個文章裏，24歲的BODIE RARTSCH 擔心經濟並考慮贖回他退休基金裏的錢，他說：“我想讓錢躺在我廚房的儲蓄罐裏，應該比401更安全”。錯了！下麵引用我即將出版的新書裏的段落：

最近，一個叫Dimensional基金研究了標準普爾指數1970年2月至2006年12月之間的表現，在這段時間裏，市場每年的平均回報率為11.1%，他們也指出一些讓人吃驚的事實，在1970至1986年的16年間，如果你錯過了市場表現最佳的25天，你的回報率會從11.1%降低到7.6%，這個不同讓人遺憾。

那麽，如果我們知道市場在哪一天會大漲，問題就解決了。

但是，毫無疑問，我們辦不到。試著選擇入場時機是傻子幹的事情。所以當你花銷盡可能自覺的時候，就開始小心而且用技巧投資。

還有這個來自JLP的鏈接，看起來市場之亂已經嚇壞了年輕的投資者，文中提到：

當我們所作與我們應該做的完全背離時，是不是很瘋狂？如果股市不斷的上漲，上漲，上漲，人們會坐立不安，買那些實際已經偏高的股票，現在，股市下跌了，大家卻又選擇觀望。

6.一些很有用的經濟數據

The New York Times把一些數據形象化，給你全新的新聞影響，看一看地球上的其他鄰居都買什麽和損失慘重的一年，前者提到：

人們如何花錢?-用於購買衣服、電子產品、休閑娛樂、家居用品或者是酒，取決於他們住在哪兒。希臘人買衣服花的錢是電子產品的13倍，日本人則在休閑娛樂上花費的錢超出衣服電子產品和家具用品的總和。美國人在任何東西上都喜歡花大筆的錢。

7.問答：緊急援助究竟會如何進行？

你不明白下麵會發生什麽，是因為沒有人猜到。但是，關於經濟形勢有一些很優秀的觀點，我讚同這個，Suze Orman告訴人們下麵的問題：

一年賺3萬9，卻要花10萬會導致什麽。

首次購房者犯下的大錯。（提示：1500美元的債務和解款是兩個概念）

當你的互助基金從12萬跌到8萬8，我們該做點什麽？

在如此亂世，還該持有股票型基金嗎？

怎麽才能買輛車（我不同意她的看法）

The New York Times專欄作家David Leonhardt的概述很不錯。

8.從Gmail中學習如何理財

我最近在科技雜誌上看到了這篇報道，它顯示了GMAIL的原始設計方案，但是我們看到的隻是最終版本。同樣的道理也可以用在有錢人身上，我們聽到了某人蜜月花了5萬美元，或者開全新的奔馳車，但是我們沒有看到他們艱苦的努力過程。這個理論對解釋今天的經濟尤其重要：很多人開著名車，買了他所無法負擔的豪宅。而那些蒙聲發財的人在這方麵做得很好，《隔壁的百萬富翁》這本個人理財書中有很多這樣的例子。（另外，如果你最近沒有買到什麽好理財書籍，或者沒有什麽辦法可以投資獲利，不妨讀讀這個）。

9.不要被人愚弄

不要把白癡當朋友。如果你看過這個網站，你能理解到：要想讓你的錢在投資方麵有足夠彈性，需要20，30，或者40年時間。在這個大前提下，似乎人們都很盲目，狂熱的從一個報紙翻到另一個。這樣做不隻是把目光放錯了地方，還會做出錯誤的理財決定，幾年以後，一定會捶胸頓足的說為什麽我沒賺到。如果你隻有一家公司的股票——哪怕你就在該公司任職——你就太傻了；如果你買了一個100萬美元的房子卻沒有相關調查，僅僅覺得這是一筆好投資，你就太傻了；如果你沒有意識到昂貴而無用的互助基金在你的餘生會花費數萬美元，你就太傻了；擔心那些你能控製的事情，而不是報紙頭條。

10.多閱讀

我的delicious書簽每天更新，特別是理財方麵。

All right, guys. I’ve gotten lots of emails about what’s going on with the economy and bailout, so I thought I’d put together a list of the articles I’ve been reading over the last two weeks. I added my own commentary to them below, plus links to stuff I’ve written that agrees/disagrees with each of the articles. My guess: If you read these links, you’ll understand more about the economy than nearly anyone you meet on the street. (Especially some of the fools I’ve been hearing lately, who are convinced that the U.S. will (1) go bankrupt, (2) start owning every mortgage in the country, and (3) think the entire financial system will be “crashing,” whatever that means.)

* * *

1. Ignore the Sensationalist Media
Gawker pulls off one of the finest pieces of reporting on the bailout. When I wrote The Media is Atrociously Bad at Prediction and I’m Sick of It, I highlighted how various business media point make bold predictions, get it completely wrong, and are never held accountable.

In this case, Fortune highlighted AIG as one of “10 Stocks to Buy Now.” When they later apologized, they posted “The Best Stocks for 2008,” which, as Gawker points out, included…Merrill Lynch.

2. Hedge Fund Surprise?
This is like a tuna surprise, only worse: Hedge Funds Are Bracing for Investors to Cash Out. Many people haven’t heard about hedge funds’ redemption clauses, which basically means that fancy investors (e.g., universities, pension funds, and really wealthy people) will be able to withdraw their money today (Tuesday, 9/29/08). If that happens, nobody really knows what the repercussions could be…but they would probably be Very Bad. I’ve previously written about why hedge funds are overrated for investors.

3. We Have Short-Term Memories.
If you think history doesn’t repeat itself, you’re nuts. In fact, 10 years ago this month, Long Term Capital Management, a huge hedge fund, nearly caused a global financial collapse. Yet here we are — with the same words being thrown around. Does anyone really think investment bankers won’t make their same salaries at some point in the future? Or that we won’t gradually move back to huge executive compensation? Still, as I pointed out last week, none of that really matters to the individual investor. What matters is picking the right strategy and sticking to it.

4. What We Can Learn From Warren Buffett
Huge, long Warren Buffett interview. He is the man. Read this. It teaches you so much about long-term investing and admitting what you know — and don’t know. Note: I just ordered this new book on Warren Buffett.

5. Should You Buy More? Sell More? Something???!
“Should I withdraw money from my 401(k)?” After 10 people sent me this link, I knew I had to check it out. In the article, 24-year old Bodie Partsch worries about the economy and contemplates withdrawing money from his retirement account, saying, “I could have the money sitting in a jar on my kitchen counter. It’d be safer than in my 401(k),” he said. BAD MOVE! Here’s a quote from my upcoming book:

Recently, a group called Dimensional Funds studied the performance of the S&P 500 from January 1970 to December 2006, during which time the annualized return of the market was 11.1%. They also noted something amazing: Of those 36 years from 1970 to 1986, if you missed the 25 days when the stock market performed the best, your return would have dropped from 11.1% to 7.6%, a crippling difference.

Now, if only we could know the best investing days ahead of time.

But, of course, you can’t. Trying to time the market is for fools. So you keep investing carefully and methodically, while spending as consciously as possible.

I’ll also add this link from JLP: It looks like Market Turmoil is Scaring Off Young Investors, where he notes:

Isn’t it crazy how we do the exact opposite of what we should be doing? If the stock market was going up, up, UP, people would be jumping in left and right—essentially buying over-priced stocks. Now that the market is on a downswing, people are sitting on the sidelines.

6. Cool Data Visualizations of The Economy
The New York Times does extraordinary data visualizations to give you a fresh perspective on the news. Check out What Your Global Neighbors Are Buying and A Year of Heavy Losses. From the first one:

How people spend their discretionary income – the cash that goes to clothing, electronics, recreation, household goods, alcohol – depends a lot on where they live. People in Greece spend almost 13 times more money on clothing as they do on electronics. People living in Japan spend more on recreation than they do on clothing, electronics and household goods combined. Americans spend a lot of money on everything.

7. Q&A: What’s Actually Going On With the Bailout?
If you don’t understand exactly what’s going on, that’s because nobody does. But there are some excellent overviews of the financial situation floating around. I like this one by Suze Orman, where she tells people the following:

• What to do with $100,000 in debt and a $39k/year job.
• The huge mistake first-time homebuyers make. (Hint: A $1,500 rent is not the same as a $1,500 mortgage.)
• What to do when your mutual fund’s account value drops from $120,000 to $88,000.
• Should you stick with stock funds in this tumultuous environment?
• How to buy a car (I disagree with her on this one).

I also like this overview by NY Times Columnist David Leonhardt. If you like audio, check out this excellent program from This American Life. Finally, last week I linked to this excellent explanation of the market crisis on the Freakonomics blog.

8. What Gmail Has To Do With Your Money
I’ve been thinking about this post on a tech blog recently. It shows the early sketches/designs of Gmail, and what you realize from looking at them is that we only see the finished result — not the sausage-making in the back room. The same is true of rich people: We hear about people going on $50,000 honeymoons or driving brand-new Mercedes, but we don’t see the hard work behind it. This is an important concept that’s being more revealed with today’s economy: Many of the people who drove the expensive cars and bought the expensive houses couldn’t afford it. The people who were quietly accumulating wealth will do much better. Read more about this in one of my favorite personal-finance books, The Millionaire Next Door. (Btw, if you haven’t bought a couple good finance books recently — or anything that will help you turn your income into more money so you can hit your goals — please read this.)

9. Don’t Let Your Friends Be Morons
Don’t let your friends be idiots. If you read this site, chances are you understand that having 20, 30, or 40 years before you need your money gives you plenty of flexibility to invest for the long term, even with major or minor dips in the market. Yet with these terrifying headlines every day, it’s like people have become blind, yet highly literate zombies who wander aimlessly from one newspaper to another. Being dumb is not just focusing on the wrong things, it’s making poor financial decisions and then throwing up your hands and wondering why you don’t have enough money a few years later. If you own only one stock — especially if it’s your employer’s stock — then you are a fool. If you are going to buy a $1 million house with no research because you think it’s a good investment, you are a fool. If you don’t realize that your expensive, worthless mutual fund is costing you tens of thousands of dollars over your lifetime, you are a fool. Worry about the things you can control, not the headlines.

10. Get More Reading Material
Want more links? I keep my delicious bookmarks up to date every day, especially the section on finance.