My Diary 432 --- 約翰.鄧普敦與他的投資哲學

約翰.鄧普敦與他的投資哲學


被譽為“全球投資之父”的偉大的投資家，慈善家，鄧普敦基金（Templeton Growth Fund ）的創始人，約翰.鄧普敦（John Templeton)於7月8日去世，享年95歲。

鄧普敦早年的時候也像巴菲特一樣曾是本傑明.戈雷翰姆的學生。在學生年代鄧普頓就表現出傑出的"財商"，12歲上中學時，他從農夫那裏買了一輛報廢的福特車，東拚西湊了一些零部件，拚出了一部轎車，這部車他一直開到中學畢業。美國大蕭條期間，他在耶魯大學，為了籌足學費，他辦報出售廣告位置，兼職學校的行政雜務，有時甚至靠與同學賭撲克牌。

1954年他創建了鄧普敦基金，最初隻有200萬美元的規模，到1992年鄧普敦退休的時候，基金規模已經有220億美元。1992年後他將基金賣給了富蘭克林，開始了他十多年的慈善事業。鄧普敦基金從1954年-1992年的38年間保持了16%的年回報率。假定1954年，你用1萬美元投資於鄧普敦基金，到1999年資產規模將增長到5500萬美元。

鄧普敦雖然早年就離開了鄧普敦基金，但他的投資哲學和影響力依然延續，1999年Money雜誌稱他為20世紀頗具爭議的、最偉大的投資家（ arguably the greatest global stock picker of the century ）。

鄧普敦許多地方頗像巴菲特，如：早年師從戈雷翰姆；很小便開始making money；住在偏僻的地方，過著儉樸的生活；一生為自己和別人賺了大筆的財富；晚年又將大部分的財富捐了出去成立自己的慈善基金，就連投資哲學都很相似。

鄧普敦有一些著名的投資語錄在投資界流行深廣，如：
關於牛市：牛市在悲觀中誕生；在懷疑中成長；在樂觀中成熟；在狂歡中死亡。
Bull Markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.
關於買入與賣出時機的選擇：在最悲觀的時候買入；在最樂觀的時候賣出。
The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.
鄧普敦的投資16原則（至今還高掛在富蘭克林.鄧普敦基金的網站上）：
1.如果你要祈禱的話，首先要禱告：想清楚了，少犯錯。
If you begin with a prayer, you can think more clearly and make fewer mistakes.
2..戰勝市場是一個極其困難的任務，這意味著你不僅要挑戰普通的投資者，還要挑戰那些專業的機構投資者，你要做出比他們更好的投資決定。

Outperforming the market is a difficult task. The challenge is not simply making better investment decisions than the average investor. The real challenge is making investment decisions that are better than those of the professionals who manage the big institutions.

3.投資，不要“交易（買賣）”或投機，股票市場不是賭場。如果每次股價波動一兩個點，你就交易，那股票市場對於你來說就是"賭場"。那你必輸無疑。

Invest - don't trade or speculate. The stock market is not a casino, but if you move in or out of stocks every time they move a point or two, the market will be your casino. And you may lose eventually - or frequently.

4.買（公司的）價值，而不是買市場趨勢或經濟走勢。其實是個股決定了市場，而不是相反。各股可以在牛市裏下跌，也可以在熊市裏上升，所以買個股，而不是買市場趨勢或經濟趨勢。

Buy value, not market trends or the economic outlook. Ultimately, it is the individual stocks that determine the market, not vice versa. Individual stocks can rise in a bear market and fall in a bull market. So buy individual stocks, not the market trend or economic outlook.

5.當選擇股票的時候，應該在好的股票裏選擇好的價格。選擇股票就像選擇餐廳，你不必指望它100%的好，但起碼也得有3星4星的水準，你才可以優先考慮。

When buying stocks, search for bargains among quality stocks. Determining quality in a stock is like reviewing a restaurant. You don't expect it to be 100% perfect, but before it gets three or four stars you want it to be superior.

6.低買，從概念上說很簡單，但實行起來就難了。當股價上升的時候，投資者會搶購；但當股價低迷的時候，投資者倒卻步了，這個時候他們膽卻和悲觀。當你同時買入人人都在買的股票，你隻能獲得一個平均的收益，顯然你不可能戰勝市場。

Buy low. So simple in concept. So difficult in execution. When prices are high, a lot of investors are buying a lot of stocks. Prices are low when demand is low. Investors have pulled back, people are discouraged and pessimistic. But if you buy the same securities everyone else is buying, you will have the same results as everyone else. By definition, you cannot outperform the market.

7.沒有免費的午餐，永遠不要偏聽偏信個別的消息，而據此作出投資決定。但是，我們很驚訝很多人都是這麽做的（聽消息買賣）。不幸的是，很多人都相信有“內部消息”可以賺快錢。

There's no free lunch. Never invest on sentiment. Never invest solely on a tip. You would be surprised how many investors do exactly this. Unfortunately there is something compelling about a tip. Its very nature suggests inside information, a way to turn a fast profit.

8.做“家庭作業”或雇傭聰明的專業人士，在投資前多做調查研究，多聽，多研究，搞清楚一個公司如何可以成功。
Do your homework or hire wise experts to help you. People will tell you: Investigate before you invest. Listen to them. Study companies to learn what makes them successful.

9.分散——按公司、行業，選擇多個公司和多種債券，分散可以適度降低風險，因為不管你再小心，你都很難預測和控製將來，所以隻有分散投資。

Diversify - by company, by industry. In stocks and bonds, there is safety in numbers. No matter how careful you are, you can neither predict nor control the future. So you must diversify.

10.追求投資回報的最大化，既首先要戰勝通脹，這是長期投資者的一個理性目標。
Invest for maximum total real return. This means the return after inflation. This is the only rational objective for most long-term investors.

11.從錯誤中學習。人，要避免完全不犯投資的錯誤，隻有不投資，但這可能是一個更大的錯誤。所以，投資者要容忍投資失誤，但要避免犯不可挽回的錯誤。把每一次錯誤都轉化成一次學習的經驗。

Learn from your mistakes. The only way to avoid mistakes is not to invest - which is the biggest mistake of all. So forgive yourself for your errors and certainly don't try to recoup your losses by taking bigger risks. Instead, turn each mistake into a learning experience.

12.保持進取的態度投資，記住：沒有一項投資是永恒的，要隨時應變。沒有一個股票是可以買了就可以完全忘記的，放鬆並不意味著飄飄然。

Aggressively monitor your investments. Remember, no investment is forever. Expect and react to change. And there are no stocks that you can buy and forget. Being relaxed doesn't mean being complacent.

13.投資者不要滿足對現有問題的答案，因為可能還有很多你沒有探明的問題。傲慢自大的態度遲早導致災難性的投資後果。聰明的投資者明白，成功既是對新出現問題不斷求解的過程。

An investor who has all the answers doesn't even understand all the questions. A cocksure approach to investing will lead, probably sooner than later, to disappointment if not outright disaster. The wise investor recognizes that success is a process of continually seeking answers to new questions.

14.對各種投資產品保持一種彈性和開放的態度，因為有時適合買藍籌股；有時適合買周期性股票；有時適合買轉換債券；有時則需坐擁現金。總之沒有一種產品可以永遠是最好的。
Remain flexible and open-minded about types of investment. There are times to buy blue-chip stocks, cyclical stocks, convertible bonds, and there are times to sit on cash. The fact is there is no one kind of investment that is always best.

15.當市場崩潰時，每個人都在賣出，而你卻沒有賣出，被套牢了，這個時候也不要驚恐，也不要趕著第二天拋出，冷靜地分析你的投資組合，如果你沒有發現更好的股票，那簡單持有你原來的組合.

Don't panic Sometimes you won't have sold when everyone else is selling, and you will be caught in a market crash. Don't rush to sell the next day. Instead, study your portfolio. If you cannot find more attractive stocks, hold on to what you have.

16.不要過分小心謹慎和負麵地看待市場，市場經常會調整，甚至崩潰，但大量的研究都表明股票總體還是上升的，不管是本世紀，還是下一個世紀。記住：低買，高賣。

Don't be fearful or negative too often. There will, of course, be corrections, perhaps even crashes. But over time our studies indicate, stocks do go up and up. In this century or the next, it's “Buy low, sell high.”

[道生德蓄之]

it's perfect