2007 (223)
2008 (139)
2009 (90)
2017 (1)
2018 (3)
決戰德州：奧巴馬能再次擊敗希拉莉嗎？（組圖）
今晚，奧巴馬和希拉莉將進行最後一次電視辯論，為三月四日的得克薩斯州初選做最後的衝刺。
本周二，奧巴馬輕鬆地拿下威斯康星州，給希拉莉以致命的一擊。威斯康星州的選民的構成幾乎是專門給希拉莉量身定做的：很多白人和上年紀的婦女。這些人是希拉莉的票源。奧巴馬在威斯康星州戰勝希拉莉意味著希拉莉的票源開始被奧巴馬所攻破。這對希拉莉來說非常不利。
以前支持希拉莉分兩類人，一是希拉莉的鐵杆擁護者，二是認為希拉莉是當然的提名人。希拉莉的鐵杆擁護者占的比例不大，主要是職業婦女和老年婦女。認為希拉莉是當然提名人的，現在軍心動搖，轉向支持奧巴馬。這些人以前有很多是黑人和白人婦女及拉美人。現在黑人是一麵倒向奧巴馬，白人婦女和拉美人成了奧巴馬和希拉莉所爭奪的對象。
在德州，有很多拉美裔選民。傳統上他們是支持希拉莉的，但在奧巴馬勢不可擋的競選聲浪和連獲十州勝利的凱歌聲中，他們會捍衛希拉莉到什麽程度很難說。希拉莉全力以赴要保住這些人，奧巴馬不遺餘力地要動員他們站到自己一邊。
希拉莉前一陣把墨西哥裔的競選經理換成黑人婦女，曾引起很多拉美裔民主黨超級代表的不滿，號召拉美裔不要投希拉莉，會有多大的影響力，現在還很難說。但如果德州的拉美裔選民向其他一些州一樣不投或投奧巴馬一票的話，希拉莉將再次敗給奧巴馬，將很快退出競選。
美國媒體現在幾乎是一麵倒向奧巴馬，不斷發表對奧巴馬有利的消息和對希拉莉不利的信息。在奧巴馬夫人說這次是她頭一次為美國感到自豪的話以後，共和黨競選人麥肯給予嚴厲的批評。而媒體隻是輕描淡寫地報到一下，而不是象對共和黨那樣窮追不舍。
在新聞報道方麵，奧巴馬的演講得到了全麵的轉播，而希拉莉的演講則不斷被打斷。有這些免費的廣告，無論是希拉莉還是麥肯，都隻能望塵莫及。
是什麽原因讓希拉莉節節敗退？為什麽象奧巴馬這樣喊口號的競選會連連勝利？
仔細分析一下，我認為原因有以下幾點：
1。據民意測驗，美國有47%的人恨或不喜歡希拉莉，而還沒有人說他恨奧巴馬。奧巴馬抓住這些人的心態，提出了除舊迎新的競選理念，深得人心。
2。奧巴馬和希拉莉在很多問題上觀點是一致的，隻是執行的技術上有分歧。就這點，就可以動搖支持希拉莉選民的軍心。
3。希拉莉不斷強調自己有經驗。把自己的競選基調定在經驗上，實在太離譜。她說的經驗跟克林頓有關，而美國有很多人不喜歡克林頓，這就造成了理念的困擾。奧巴馬說自己是沒經驗，但很自豪自己沒有希拉莉那樣的經驗，讓希拉莉無話可說。
4。奧巴馬提出的是美國政改的方向問題，不要自上而下，而要自下而上。希拉莉說的經驗和計劃，是一個技術問題。總統是一個國家的領袖，如果選民支持他的方向，技術上的問題都是小事。
綜上分析，如果不出什麽狀況，奧巴馬有可能再此戰勝希拉莉。如果失去了德州，她繼續競選下去所能依靠的是爭辯讓佛羅裏達州和密歇根州的選票重新算數，而奧巴馬則會要求超級代表們要服從民意，放棄希拉莉。
跟共和黨簡單而有效的選舉體係相比，民主黨的代表選舉製度是錯綜複雜而十分混亂還不合理。有人說這點就可以看出讓民主黨上台會給美國帶來一片混亂，不見得沒有一些道理。
ignorant
McCain = Bush
Pathetic.
Hillary is getting not less media exposure, but as the world can see, she has nothing but scandals to show.
The media don't invent those crap unless she made them herself.
The only attack on Obama is his inexperience and his skin color. Nothing more. The inexperience has been strongly proven to be even an advantage for the new generation of politic and leadership, and the racial discrimination is just lame and upsetting.
Hillary's campaign is on $7.5 million of debt which doesn't even include the $5 million out of her own pocket. How can you expect to trust in her administration of this country while she can't even make her little campaign work in a healthy manner, despite all the misconducts, scandals and lies?
Wake up, Chinese fellows. The change in skin color in the White House will be a milestone in perfecting the true America. The skin color can't justify their cause, but it's rather a symbol of a greater level of humanity and civilization.
Hillary Clinton, Obama's bitter rival for the Democrats' presidential nomination, has long complained that the young Illinois senator is getting a free ride from journalists in thrall to his promise of change.
"Obama is the new story this year and reporters love novel plotlines," said Darrell West, a political scientist and media expert at Brown University in Rhode Island.
"But as it gets closer to the nomination, there is going to be more scrutiny of him. Reporters are going to examine his statements, his votes and his background," he told AFP.
Some Obama supporters fret already that his campaign has the trappings of a messianic cult, as thousands upon thousands pack auditoriums to bask in his uplifting oratory.
"Obamaphilia has gotten creepy," Los Angeles Times columnist Joel Stein wrote. "The best we Obamaphiles can do is to refrain from embarrassing ourselves."
But even seasoned Republican commentators have found something refreshing in the 46-year-old Obama's drive to become the first African-American president and turn a page on two decades of political rancor.
MSNBC presenter Joe Scarborough, a former Republican representative, has commented admiringly on Obama's ability to rally independents and even Republicans to his cause. "I've never seen anything like this before," he said.
For a fickle media pack always desperate for the next big thing, the Obama phenomenon has shone beside the tarnished luster of Clinton and her former president husband Bill.
That frustrates Clinton aides such as communications chief Howard Wolfson, who said his boss had been "vetted" thoroughly.
"There is a role that the press plays in vetting candidates and that role is presumably ongoing," he said, arguing that recent disclosures about Obama were better late than never.
The candidate himself denies that he has received an easy ride, noting that for much of last year the coverage was not so excitable when he was focused on nuts-and-bolts stump issues.
"We got good press (at first) because we raised more money than people had expected," Obama said late last month. "And then there was a big stretch of about six months when we couldn't do anything right.
"We were not complaining when other candidates were touted as inevitable and their campaigns were flawless and we were the gang that couldn't shoot straight. So I just think we have to keep it in perspective."
Obama has kept the press at arm's length, giving fewer on-the-record briefings than Clinton, the once "inevitable" nominee who has become more accessible as her campaign has faltered.
Still, Obama brings to mind the original "Teflon president," Ronald Reagan, to whom scandal failed to stick and whose talent for communication lives on in the Illinois senator.
The Clinton campaign has struggled to whip up media interest in Obama's financial links to a Chicago businessman, Antoin Rezko, who is due to go on trial for fraud next month.
The New York senator has gained traction more recently for her accusation that Obama has plagiarized other politicians' speeches, although that piece of spin did nothing to halt Obama's momentum in Wisconsin Tuesday.
Television networks cut away from Clinton mid-speech on the night of the Wisconsin primary as Obama stole her thunder at a victory rally in Texas, a small but telling sign of the shift in media attention from last year.
But Obama hasn't been immune to attack.
Fox News presenters last year relayed false claims by Insight, an online journal published by Sun Myung Moon's Unification Church, that he attended a radical Islamic school as a child in Indonesia.
Insight had said the Clinton campaign was preparing to assert that Obama had covered up this period of his life, but the New York Times said the report was "quickly discredited" and Fox backtracked.
However, Obama is now under broader fire as his chances of winning the Democratic nomination have surged with victories in 11 contests running.
In an article headlined "The Obama Delusion," Washington Post columnist Robert Samuelson said the senator "seems to have hypnotized much of the media and the public with his eloquence and the symbolism of his life story."
"The result is a mass delusion that Obama is forthrightly engaging the nation's major problems when, so far, he isn't."
it seems American people agree that they need changes.
he does look like a red gard, doesn't he? : )
和我的感覺一樣的，奧巴馬上台，看來美國也要來一場中國式的文化大革命！
任何的反潮流和激進 都將給社會帶來動蕩和災難。人類要學會從曆史中吸取教訓。
他看來象個紅衛兵頭頭!!!
agree! 他說的都是討好選民的。