May the West Emerge From the Fog
May the West Emerge From the Fog
By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine
ALLA AND I JUST LAUNCHED A NEW FUNDRAISING CAMPAIGN TO PURCHASE DRONE DETECTORS
If supported, it may be vital to us
Druzhkivka – I am writing this article after spending considerable time on the eastern flank of Ukraine, focusing on Dobropillia and Bilozerske in the Pokrovsk district, and after traveling most of the primary and secondary logistics routes there and along the neighboring Huliaypole front.
With what they have at their disposal, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are doing extraordinary work; far beyond anything seen in previous years, even on tough fronts such as Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
All communication routes to the front lines are fully functional, and supplies are flowing quickly. Without going into detail about some of the innovations introduced by the Ukrainian Command, it is necessary to highlight this fact, since the Russian Armed Forces are doing everything possible to compromise those arteries, both road and rail.
The Huliaypole-Oleksandrivka/Pokrovske-Omelnyk-Novomykolaivka quadrilateral is holding, despite Russian raids. I arrived in Dmitrovka, Petropavlivka, and Mykolaivka when the rubble of farmhouses, cottages, and businesses was still smoking. The Russians are striking relentlessly and indiscriminately with drone attacks using high-explosive and incendiary weapons combined with other missiles. Despite this, the countermeasures taken by the Ukrainian army to keep men and equipment safe are thwarting the enemy’s plans.
The fog is so thick that it makes attacks with most FPV drones impossible, but it facilitates DPR ambushes. Thus, the occupation troops managed to cross a pontoon located between Yalta and Dachne near Novopavlivka at least twice, allowing heavy vehicles to pass through, which the Ukrainians were then only partially able to neutralize.
Abroad, the emphasis continues to be on recruitment, while – as we have continually emphasized, and as the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine reiterated yesterday – the issue is not men but ammunition. By recruiting approximately 30,000 new soldiers each month, Ukraine is not only managing losses but also increasing its military personnel, which, however, lacks the weapons and equipment to defend a 1,200-kilometer-long front. To address this chronic shortage of artillery, counter-battery weapons, radar, and traditional reconnaissance systems, Ukraine is using drones. These drones are excellent and undoubtedly better than the Chinese ones available to the Russian Federation, but they are ineffective in weather conditions like those we’ve been experiencing at the front for over a week. Fully aware of these shortages, the Russians managed to breach a section of Ukrainian defenses, allowing enough men and equipment to pass through that it was initially impossible to determine exactly. The breach was quickly closed by the assault infantry of the 59th Yakiv Handzyuk Brigade, which eliminated about fifteen occupants and captured two prisoners. However, Ukraine’s partners were also aware of this serious flaw, having ignored President Zelensky’s requests.
After repeatedly visiting various brigades near the front line, Zelensky warned them and provided an accurate picture of Ukraine’s needs, but did not achieve any concrete results. On Sunday alone, the Russians attempted to break through 176 times along the entire front line, focusing most of those attacks on Pokrovsk and Huliaypole. Although I have information that offers a very different view than what much of the Western press suggests, I prefer to be cautious and wait for some very positive Ukrainian results in the Pokrovsk sector to be made public in the coming hours. Regarding Huliaypole, where the occupation forces were also guilty of further war crimes with the summary execution of two Ukrainian soldiers, I can confirm that the Russian advance was halted and even pushed back in the two former urban settlements of Zelenyj Hai and Chervone, which were retaken by the Trident Armed Forces.
In the Donbas areas where I’m writing from, the sun sets around four in the afternoon, and temperatures are near freezing. The freezing fog creates favorable conditions for the Russians to attack, but not for the Ukrainians, who are defending themselves without the necessary means.
From afar, it’s increasingly evident how detached the West is from the Ukrainian situation. The caution and restraint we, who have been living through the war on the ground for years, maintain, give way to hasty judgments made without regard for the complexity by those who have never been here. Certain ‘analyses’ based on ‘OSINT data’ – extremely risky during a time of information war – end up swaying government decisions and public opinion, suggesting that a Russian victory is inevitable and that the Kremlin’s efforts to shape and promote support for Ukraine are pointless.
Enticing and even convenient, this narrative ultimately contributes to Western disengagement, leading to troubling outcomes on the ground.
Through our crowdfunding campaign, we aim to purchase and install drone detection devices on each of our vehicles to protect against drone attacks in hot zones. Anti-drone «РЕБ» devices have proven effective against traditional wireless drones, but are completely ineffective against those connected via fiber-optic cables. We are launching this new campaign to ensure that none of those war machines will hit us when we approach the frontlines where we write our articles. Your support will not only protect us but also the civilians and defenders within the device’s range.
我們的目標是，通過我們的眾籌活動，可以在每輛車上購買和安裝無人機探測設備，以防止在前線熱點地區遭受無人機襲擊。反無人機“РЕБ”設備對傳統無線無人機效果良好，但對通過光纖連接的無人機完全無效。我們發起這場新募捐，希望確保在我們接近前線寫作時，這些設備都不會擊中我們。您的支持不僅能保護我們，也能保護有效範圍內的平民和烏克蘭戰士。
幫我們購買無人機探測器
在過去的三年裏，作為自由撰稿人，我們一直在烏克蘭戰爭的所有前線進行報道，自從大規模…
https://www.paypal.com/pools/c/9k3lwAl8Wo
願西方走出迷霧
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
烏克蘭現場報道
德魯日基夫卡（Druzhkivka）——在寫這篇文章前，我在烏克蘭東翼逗留了很長時間，特別是波克羅夫斯克地區的多布羅彼利亞和比洛澤爾斯克，並在那裏和鄰近的胡利亞伊波爾前線大部分的主要和次要後勤路線活動。
烏克蘭武裝力量盡其所能，正在取得非凡的成就；遠遠超出以往任何年份，即使是在巴赫穆特和阿夫迪夫卡這樣艱難的戰線上也不例外。
所有通往前線的交通線路都完全暢通，物資補給也在迅速輸送。雖然不便過多細述烏克蘭指揮部引入的一些創新措施，但必須強調這一點，因為俄軍正竭盡全力破壞這些動脈般的公路和鐵道。
盡管遭受俄軍襲擊，胡萊亞波爾-奧列克桑德裏夫卡/波克羅夫斯克-奧梅尼克-新米克拉伊夫卡四邊形地區仍然堅守。我在抵達德米特羅夫卡、彼得羅帕夫利夫卡和米克拉伊夫卡時，農舍、度假屋和商鋪的廢墟仍在散發著煙霧。俄軍不斷無差別地進行無人機攻擊，使用高爆彈、燃燒彈，以及其他導彈進行無休止的襲擊。盡管如此，烏克蘭軍隊采取的反製措施，有效保障了人員和裝備的安全，成功挫敗了敵人的陰謀。
（圖：我在帕夫利夫卡的傍晚時分——版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
濃霧彌漫，令大多數FPV無人機的攻擊變得不可能，但卻為頓巴斯的伏擊提供了便利。因此，占領軍設法在諾沃帕夫利夫卡附近的雅爾塔和達其內之間的浮橋上，至少通過了兩次，並有重型車輛通過，而烏克蘭方麵對此隻能做到部分抵禦。
在國外，焦點持續放在“招聘”上，而正如我們不斷強調的，以及烏克蘭總統辦公室的負責人昨天重申的，問題不在於兵力，而在於彈藥。烏克蘭每月招募約3萬新兵，不僅在應對損失，同時還在增加兵力。然而，但他們缺乏必要的武器和裝備，無法有效捍衛長達1200公裏的前線。為了解決炮兵、反炮兵武器、雷達和傳統偵察係統的長期短缺，烏克蘭開始使用無人機。這些無人機性能優異，毫無疑問優於俄羅斯能夠獲得的中國無人機，但在我們在前線已持續一周的惡劣天氣條件下，它們無法發揮作用。充分意識到這些短板後，俄軍成功突破了烏克蘭防線的一部分，使得大量人員和裝備通過，最初難以準確判定其具體位置。很快第59雅基夫·漢德朱克突擊旅的步兵部隊封堵了這一漏洞，殲滅了大約十五名敵人，並俘獲兩名戰俘。然而，烏克蘭的盟友也意識到了這個嚴重的漏洞，但卻未曾理會澤連斯基總統的請求。
（圖：地圖上標示的的是我目前位置，同時表明盡管有FPV無人機的影響，道路仍可通行，但非常困難，尤其是在一些俄軍部隊已南遷至查西夫雅爾以南之後——由穀歌地圖繪製。）
在多次訪問前線附近各旅後，澤連斯基已向盟友們發出警告，詳細說明了烏克蘭的需求，但未能取得任何實質性的成果。僅在周日一天，俄軍就沿整個前線進行了167次突破嚐試，重點攻擊集中在波克羅夫斯克和胡萊亞波爾地區。雖然我掌握的信息與西方大部分媒體所報道的截然不同，但我還是傾向於保持謹慎，等待未來幾小時內官方披露一些烏克蘭在波克羅夫斯克地區非常積極的成果。關於胡萊亞波爾，俄軍還涉嫌更多的戰爭罪行，包括處決了兩名烏克蘭士兵，我可以確認，俄軍的推進已被遏製住，甚至在曾經被占領的澤列尼·蓋伊和切爾沃涅兩個城鎮，烏克蘭的三叉戟武裝部隊已將俄軍擊退並重新奪回城鎮。
我目前所在的頓巴斯地區，日落時間大約在下午四點，氣溫接近零下。凍結的霧氣為俄軍發動攻擊營造了有利條件，但對烏軍來說卻不利，因為他們在沒有必要裝備的情況下在進行防禦。
從遠處來看，越來越明顯的是，西方與烏克蘭局勢的脫節。我們這些多年來在前線親身經曆戰火、保持謹慎和克製的人們，不得不讓位於那些從未到過這裏，忽視了局勢的複雜性，卻草率判斷的人。一些基於“開源情報（OSINT）”數據為基礎的“分析”——在信息戰時期極具風險——最終左右了政府決策和輿論，暗示俄羅斯勝利已成定局，克裏姆林宮試圖塑造和推動對烏克蘭的支持毫無意義。
這種引人入勝甚至令人感到便捷的敘事，最終助長了西方與烏克蘭的疏離，導致前線局勢變得更加令人擔憂。
（圖片：我在烏克蘭頓涅茨克州 寫這篇文章前的瞬間——版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
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