Election hinges on not what you or I think/do, but on...

...but on what the plurality of the American electorate (through the Electoral College) think/do, which, in turn, if slightly to a lesser extent, depends on what the pluratiy of the electorate perceive what the plurality of the electorate think/do.

All said and done, though, in a close race as this one is purportedly getting more so of late, your prediction has at least a 50-50 chance of turning out to be true.