把期望值降低一點，人生會更幸福：今後10年，index fund 每年能7%我就很滿足。

• Vanguard: Investors expect returns of 7.2%, which is higher than Vanguard's forecast of 4.2–6.2%. 
• Charles Schwab: Expects U.S. large-company stocks to return 6.2% annually and international large-company stocks to return 7.6% annually. 
• Research Affiliates: Expects U.S. large caps to return 4% annually, but small-cap stocks to return 7.2% annually. 
• Finimize: Expects S&P 500 returns to be in the 3–6% range. 
• Goelzer Investment Management: Expects S&P 500 returns to be in the 4–5.3% range.

 以上是各大公司對下10年股市回報率的預測。

 

Highlights: Nominal median U.S. equity market return of 4.2% to 6.2% during the next decade; 4.8%–5.8% median expected return for U.S. fixed income (as of Sept. 30, 2023). Vanguard's latest U.S. equity market return forecast is a touch below where it was a year ago. (The firm presents its forecasts in a range.)