過去幾次recession 開始的時間 和 Yield curve inversion 的關係

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087216/time-gap-between-yield-curve-inversion-and-recession/

The 2020 recession was the shortest and did not follow the trend of previous recessions.  12 months was the average time between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession. For 2008 recession, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of 2008 recession. This time the 10 year and 3 month first inverted in Oct last year. see below chart: 

 

more details here: https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_3_month_treasury_spread