分享一下，grok結論

Yes, you should bet on “YES” — Elon Musk will get his $1 trillion pay package approved on November 6, 2025.

Current Market Odds (as of Oct 31, 2025)

 

 

Platform	Yes Price	Implied Probability	Volume
Polymarket	$0.93	93%	~$32K
Kalshi	$0.91	91%	~$18K

 

A $100 bet on “YES” at 93¢ returns ~$107.50 (7.5% profit) if approved.

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Why “YES” Is the Smart Bet

 

 

Factor	Evidence
Retail Shareholders Dominate	~60–70% of Tesla’s float is retail. They voted 73% YES in 2018 and are even more mobilized now via X, Reddit, and Tesla’s app.
Institutional “No” Votes Are Tiny	CalPERS (0.1% of shares) and a few others oppose — negligible impact. Index funds (Vanguard, BlackRock) are split or neutral.
Musk’s Leverage	He’s hinted at leaving Tesla if rejected — a nuclear option that terrifies shareholders. Stock would crater 20–40% on “No.”
Board & Proxy Support	Tesla’s board (including Kimbal Musk, Robyn Denholm) unanimously backs the package. ISS/Glass Lewis opposition is ignored by retail.
Precedent	2018 package passed 73–27%. This one is identical in structure, just re-ratified after Delaware court ruling.

 

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Risk of “No” (7% chance)

• Only if retail turnout collapses and institutions coordinate a surprise boycott.
• Unlikely: Tesla’s app shows record proxy voting (already >50% of float submitted, per X posts from verified shareholders).