Your underlying assumption is polling samples are accurate. However, polling samples can be biased, for example, those republicans who don't want to vote for T but for H don't want to talk to pollsters, while MAMGs are more willing to answer polls. Another example is the under-estimate of new registered voters (most of them are young) who are leaning toward Harris. In swinging states with a very fine margin, those biases can make polls incorrect.
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the polling is better than your assumption. Polling is based on sampling.
晴天好好心情 發表評論於 2024-11-04 08:54:35
Your underlying assumption is polling samples are accurate. However, polling samples can be biased, for example, those republicans who don't want to vote for Trump but for Harris don't want to talk to pollsters, while MAMGs are more willing to answer polls. Another example is the under-estimate of new registered voters (most of them are young) who are leaning toward Harris. In swinging states with a very fine margin, those biases can make polls incorrect.
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the polling is better than your assumption. Polling is based on sampling.
我是大海 發表評論於 2024-11-04 08:41:29
Voted last week. Go Harris!
xiaoxiao雨 發表評論於 2024-11-04 07:44:37
the polling is better than your assumption. Polling is based on sampling.
樓下說新增首投族大都支持民主黨不靠譜的去看新聞。There are signs of an influx of new female Democratic voters in Pennsylvania and new male Republican voters in Arizona, two of the most important swing states. emale Democrats dominate new voter numbers from Pennsylvania。賓州女性首投族這次將會建奇功，她們大都登記為民主黨。這是早投實實在在的數據不是民調或估計。
