貿易戰：隻說三點看法---zt

Yong Zhao added 3 new photos — with Yan Xiong and 祝歧三.

· April 2 at 1:45am ·

 

【貿易戰：隻說三點看法】
（作者：清華大學社會學係教授孫立平）
1、貿易戰是美國戰略思維發生變化的產物，而國內的不明智的言行起了觸發的作用。在特朗普上任最初的時候，基本是把恐怖主義作為主要對手的。到發表安全戰 略報告的時候，才開始把中國作為頭號對手。這個演變是如何發生的？在這當中，國內的不明智言行，起了觸發的作用，至少是強化了其威脅感。
2、中國打不起，沒法打。美國自然資源的稟賦可以使得其在閉關鎖國的條件下也能發展相當一段時間，而我們的資源嚴重依賴外部市場；最尖端的技術大多掌握在 美國手裏，而我們要嚴重依賴美國的技術；我們的外匯絕大部分來自於美國，沒有這些外匯，必需的糧食、石油和芯片等都無法進口；美國有眾多的盟友，離開中 國，雖然經濟也會受沉重打擊，但仍有廣大的市場，而我們則沒有這樣的條件。如果貿易戰打到極端，對於美國經濟來說至多是重創的問題，而對我們來說則是生存 問題。
3、對企業的影響，讓步後對外開放的影響大於貿易戰本身。我相信，這次的貿易戰會以妥協讓步的方式來解決。當然，中國做出的讓步會更大，或者主要是中國的 讓步。最大的讓步是履行加入世貿時的大部分承諾，實行更大力度的對外開放。我覺得，這個影響要比貿易戰本身的影響大。對於企業來說，也許是意味著某種機 會。

[Trade War: only three points of view]
(Author: Professor Sun the, professor of sociology, University of China)
Trade warfare is a product of a change in the strategic thinking of the United States, and it has been a trigger for unwise behaviour in the country. At First, when trump took office, it was basically a major adversary. It was only when the security strategy report was released that China began to be the number one rival. How did this evolution happen? In this context, the country's ill-advised behaviour has played a catalytic role, at least by reinforcing its sense of threat.
2, China can't fight, can't fight. The Endowment of natural resources in the United States can enable it to develop for quite some time under closed-door conditions, and our resources are heavily dependent on external markets; most of the most sophisticated technologies are in the hands of the United States, and we have to rely heavily on the United States. Technology; the vast majority of our foreign exchange comes from the United States, without these foreign exchange, the necessary food, oil and chips, and so on; the United States has many allies, leaving China, although the economy will be hit hard, but there is still a lot of it. The Market, and we do not have such a condition. If trade warfare is to be extreme, it will be a problem for the United States economy, but for us it is a question of survival.
The impact on enterprises is greater than the trade war itself. I believe that this trade war will be resolved in a compromise way. Of course, the concessions made by China will be even greater, or mainly by China. The biggest concession is the implementation of most of the commitments made in the wto accession process, with a greater degree of external openness. I feel that this impact is much greater than the trade war itself. For an enterprise, it may mean some kind of opportunity.

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