馬航客機應該在這裏找

最近馬航的消息是鬧的沸沸揚揚，這是我老公通過新聞裏麵提供的信息得到的結論,

他認為在澳大利亞的西部海域和島嶼一帶尋找，這是他的理由。

 

 

 

I was watching CNN this morning and they are trying to search the "Southern Arc" determined from the satellite ping. But they are searching too far south.

 

I think they need to start the search at about 25'16 S. Latitude and 95 E. Longitude, then work about 200 mi eastward from that position along the 25E Latitude.

 

If there is debris, it would be found in Australia, but not near Perth, as shown in CNN, but near the 25 S Latitude edge of Australia, near the town of  Carnarvon, Babbage Island, Bernier Island and Dorre Island.

 

Here's my reasoning why they are currently searching too far south.

 

First, lets review what we know to be true.

1. Last position by transponder is in right East side of Malaysia.

2. Last position by radar is in West side of Malaysia (jet traveling east to West) at 2:11AM

3. Last position by Inmar satellite ping is 8:15AM along 95E Longitude. Plan was flying 6 hours later (for a total in flight time of approximately 7 hrs or so) No satellite ping after this implies Jet is down

4. Range of Plane is approximately 7.5 hours.

 

Assumptions:

1. Crew incapacitated (by whatever cause, smoke, decompression, shootout with terrorist) after last radar position West of Malaysia.

2. Plane not on autopilot or autothrottle, but just flying, westward.

 

 

According to CNN, there was an article by a pilot that said the 777 is inherently stable, and will fly by itself, even without autopilot, and will continue for hours. In fact without autopilot, it will change heading and altitude

based on the whim if the prevailing winds.

Well, imagine if you threw a paper airplane into a steady wind, eventually it will turn around, spiral down. The jet was like that. It was flying west, against the wind (due to rotation of earth).

Without an autopilot, it will turn. We know it did not turn north because it would hit India, and detected by many nations radar. It must have turned south, but not sharply, but gently, since

the airspeed is much greater than the headwind. Eventually, it will go back to the same longitude it started at, but going East to West.

 

It did not cross the 95E Longitude more than once in spiral fashin because if it did, it would have been detected by Indonesia, So it must have just crossed it just once, far enough away from Indonesia, when the satellite pinged.

The route was probably a semicircle, because if the headwind is steady, the plane would just make a large, lazy loop back to the longitude it started from.

 

By simple geometry, if the path is a semicircle, the flight time of 6hrs at 550mph, a total distance traveled of over 3000mi, it would have crossed the 95E longitude only 2100 mi south, of its last know position

with about 1/2 hour fuel left going east to west, at a latitude of 25S Latitude.

 

Thus, they should search not the full distance if the flight went south directly from the last known position, but only 2100mi south, not 3000mi south. They are searching 1000mi too far south. At the 25S Latitude,

if it did crash in the sea, debris floating east to west will hit Australia not at Perth, but the relatively uninhabited area near the town of Carnarvon, Babbage Island, Bernier Island and Dorre Island.

 

[人間的盒子]

這圖

http://yeyeclub.com/data/attachment/album/201403/27/172626bb6sc3m07czs73t3.jpg