周末漲姿勢:對氣候變化感興趣的看過來 :)
文章來源: 阿留2016-12-10 12:03:18

900-1300 AD,全球曾經經曆過一次變暖,當時英國葡萄大豐收,其釀酒質量直逼法國葡萄酒,以至於法國不得不采取貿易手段抵製。當時的最高氣溫,比現在還要高。

緊接著1350-1850AD是曆史上的一個小冰河期,上麵曆史頻道的紀錄片講得很清楚。在歐洲,這個小冰河期直接造成了維京人的衰落。在北美,紐約港曾經冰凍5周,人們可以在冰麵上,直接從曼哈頓走到Staten Isand;新英格蘭地區曾在6、7月份降雪2英尺——難道米鍋也有“竇娥冤”?:)

而5000年人類文明以來,最暖的時期是3000多年前,接近我國商王武丁,以及埃及法老拉美西斯二世的時代。那時人類尚處於青銅時代。

由此可見,地球的氣候變化是個非常複雜的問題,現在還沒有明確的認識,也無法準確預測下一個小冰河期何時到來。我們人類,應該本著“知之為知之,不知為不知"的態度,積極探索,小心求證,而不要妄下結論。

相關閱讀:http://www.longrangeweather.com/global_temperatures.htm

 

Dr. Wheeler also discovered that approximately every 102 years, a much warmer and drier climatic cycle affects our planet. The last such "warm and dry" peak occurred in 1936, at the end of the infamous "Dust Bowl" period. During that time, extreme heat and dryness, combined with a multitude of problems during the “Great Depression,” made living conditions practically intolerable.

Assuming there is a brief cool down around 2020, the next “warm and dry” climatic phase is scheduled to arrive in the early 2030s, probably peaking around 2038. It is expected to produce even hotter and drier weather patterns than we saw during the late 1990s and early 2000s.

But, we should remember, that the Earth’s coldest periods have usually followed excessive warmth. Such was the case when our planet moved from the Medieval Warm Period between 900 and 1300 A.D. to the sudden “Little Ice Age,” which peaked in the 17th Century. Since 2,500 B.C., there have been at least 78 major climate changes worldwide, including two major changes in just the past 40 years.

By the end of this 21st Century, a cool down may occur that could ultimately lead to expanding glaciers worldwide, even in the mid-latitudes. Based on long-term climatic data, these major ice ages have recurred about every 11,500 years. The last extensive ice age was approximately 11,500 years ago, so we may be due again sometime soon. But, only time will tell.