Recovery vs. Recession

It has become a universal article of faith that U.S. economic growth is steadily improving. Naturally, any recession fears are now considered distant memories.

In its latest reading, the Fed’s popular “stall speed” measure of Gross Domestic Income (GDI) growth also rose above its 2% recession threshold, further boosting optimism about the U.S. recovery. However, is such an optimistic view warranted?

ECRI’s latest analysis of our coincident indicators alongside the GDI examines whether this optimism is sustainable.