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2007年2月28日,中國股市單日跌9%,140 BILLION (等直$US) 的財富一夜蒸發, 觸發了一掄全球性股災.
到上周末,全球股市經過三周的調整.普遍有所恢複. 上政指數已完全收複失地,再創新高, TSX一周也升了3.2%,創去年7月以來的記錄. 以下是幾個主要股市和板塊的在這此股災的表現:
1. 指數方麵:
Index | FMV beofre the day of crash | FMV of day after crash | Single day Change (%) | FMV on Mar-23-07 | % in Change | 上政指數 | 3,040.60 | 2,771.79 | -8.84% | 3,074.29 | 1.11% | DOW | 12,632.26 | 12,216.24 | -3.29% | 12,481.01 | -1.20% | DASDAQ | 2,504.52 | 2,407.86 | -3.86% | 2,448.93 | -2.22% | SPX | 1,449.37 | 1,399.04 | -3.47% | 1,436.11 | -0.91% | NIKKEI | 18,119.92 | 17,604.12 | -2.85% | 17,480.61 | -3.53% | FTSE 100 | 6,434.70 | 6,286.10 | -2.31% | 6,339.40 | -1.48% | CAC 40 | 5,762.54 | 5,588.39 | -3.02% | 5,634.75 | -2.22% | HIS | 20,147.87 | 19,651.51 | -2.46% | 19,692.64 | -2.26% | HSCE | 9,586.23 | 9,283.67 | -3.16% | 9,487.51 | -1.03% | TSX | 13,404.46 | 13,040.11 | -2.72% | 13,237.66 | -1.24% |
可見,全球除中國外,普遍還沒有從這此股災中完全恢複過來, 迄今仍loss of about $3.3-trillion in global stock values, according to Bloomberg News.
2. 板塊方麵:
TSX 幾個權重板的情況如下:
TSX 財經 | 220.13 | 216.21 | -1.78% | 221.73 | 0.73% | TSX 黃金 | 338.00 | 317.00 | -6.21% | 313.18 | -7.34% | TSX 材料 | 285.05 | 270.87 | -4.97% | 270.98 | -4.94% | TSX 礦業 | 683.24 | 647.78 | -5.19% | 675.13 | -1.19% | TSX 能源 | 172.32 | 169.3 | -1.75% | 172.33 | 0.01% |
可見,黃金和材料在這一掄股災中損失較大,也正是因為他們在前期漲幅過大,MM套利所致. 能源在前期本身在滯後MARKET,而近期有大幅反彈,所以能源這一掄股災中沒有太大的損失.財經曆來是股載的避風港這一次再一次得到證實,它以完全恢複過來.
3. 個人方麵:仍有2.23%的損失沒有修複. 一方麵是因為ASSETS的權重偏重METAL和材料而在股災中屬於重災區板,另外,在股災後,我們售掉了黃金和資源基金,並對組合從新做了調整,降低了黃金和資源的暴露程度.
我們在這次股災中的教訓和LESSON是感受到 TIMGING MARKET的難度和PORTFOLIO 組合的重要性,避免被市場的情緒而影響投資的決策.Focusing on things you can control - the diversification and quality of your portfolio.
實踐證明:Time in the market is more important than timing the market.
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