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reasons:
1. Insiders were buying on Feb, March, April this year, I believe that it shows UCBH were still OK at the height of financial crisis.
2. UCBH were paying out dividends as recently as 6/26/09. This shows some kind of financial strength.
3. UCBH got new capital infusion of $30 million from China Minsheng Bank on 12/23/08, and $298.7 million from Treasury on 11/14/08.
4. Recent rally of capital market may/should improve UCBH's book, reducing the chance of government action on regulatory requirement (a wild guess).
5. Stop interest payment will save about $46.2 million cash per year.
6. From TA, UCBH's price shows a little stability. Today is fifth day since UCBH broke $1 barrier on news of Fitch downgrade. Panic investors have enough time to flee if they want to.
7 Commercial loan implosion risks is not a new thing just starts to surface on horizon. Investors has been hearing about it for years.
Risks:
1. continuous deterioration of economy, commercial loan performance. UCBH was growing too fast when economy was booming.
2 two more possible downgrade from the other 2 rating agency.
Wild card:
Its relation with China Minsheng Bank, if Minsheng Bank would continue to increase its investment on UCBH.
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