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It is certainly not a benign November so far for investors with more than 150 points swing(as for Dow) for each single session. Citi\'s CEO replacement failed to inspire buyers. The credit market continues to be jittery and all credit spreads have widened noticeably during the past week. Investors certainly are paying heavily for the loosened credit standards during the housing bubble. My concern is the credit problem may be larger than what the Fed chairman has predicted earlier(between 50B - 100B) and in the worst case scenario, it can spread to the whole financial sector and even bring down some institutions. Insurance companies could be the next to write down their holdings(which can be both on-balance-sheet and off-balance-sheet). In short, the market can experience more volatile days for the rest of this year. Oil price dropped by almost $2 today while gold price continued to climb higher. There are some huge selloffs in emerging marekts today, especially in Asia and Latin America. Although it\'s too early to call the top of the emerging market boom, it is certainly not a bad idea to move some chips off the table from those markets. |
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