課題：如果堅持1%的法則，是否真能帶來好處？

咱接著上次的那個例子講講1%的法則是不是真管用。原帖http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/tzlc/399525.html

講到2000-2010年是房價瘋漲的年代。那些年rent/value都小於1%。具體數據如下：

year	Market Value	rent	Rent/Value	ROI (9m)	ROI (8m)
1992	30031	544.87	1.81%	16.33%	14.51%
1993	30031	561.22	1.87%	16.82%	14.95%
1994	30031	578.05	1.92%	17.32%	15.40%
1995	55602	593.08	1.07%	9.60%	8.53%
1996	50180	609.69	1.22%	10.94%	9.72%
1997	60216	627.98	1.04%	9.39%	8.34%
1998	60216	642.42	1.07%	9.60%	8.53%
1999	60216	652.70	1.08%	9.76%	8.67%
2000	69904	667.06	0.95%	8.59%	7.63%
2001	80850	689.74	0.85%	7.68%	6.82%
2002	103000	709.05	0.69%	6.20%	5.51%
2003	93000	720.40	0.77%	6.97%	6.20%
2004	88000	736.97	0.84%	7.54%	6.70%
2005	110000	756.87	0.69%	6.19%	5.50%
2006	94000	782.60	0.83%	7.49%	6.66%
2007	104000	807.64	0.78%	6.99%	6.21%
2008	109000	830.26	0.76%	6.86%	6.09%
2009	97000	861.81	0.89%	8.00%	7.11%
2010	91000	858.36	0.94%	8.49%	7.55%
2011	61000	872.09	1.43%	12.87%	11.44%
2012	45000	900.00	2.00%	18.00%	16.00%

我講的第一個例子是有錢就買房。現在我演示一下如果加入下麵這個條件會怎麽樣？

if(rent/value>=1%), buy as many houses as possible, do not buy

那樣的話以前那個例子中的2000-2010之間買下的房現在就不買了。Cash is the King。

結果如此。

	Restaurant	Acquisition	Rent Income	Living Expenses	Bought	# of Houses	Cash	rent/value
1992	10800		0.00	0	0	0	10800	1.81%
1993	30000	-30031	0		1	1	10768.95	1.87%
1994	36000	-30031	5202.48		1	2	21940.38	1.92%
1995	37008	-55602	10675.48	-12000	1	3	2021.866	1.07%
1996	38118.24	0	16461.60	-12360	0	3	44241.7	1.22%
1997	38994.96	0	16955.44	-12644.28	0	3	87547.82	1.04%
1998	39618.88	0	17345.42	-12846.59	0	3	131665.5	1.07%
1999	40490.49	0	17622.95	-13129.21	0	3	176649.8	1.08%
2000	41867.17	0	18010.65	-13575.61	0	3	222952	0.95%
2001	43039.45	-250000	18623.01	-13955.72	0	3	20658.71	0.85%
2002	50000.00	0	19144.46	-14179.02	0	3	75624.15	0.69%
2003	51150.00	0	19450.77	-24000	0	3	122224.9	0.77%
2004	52531.05	0	19898.14	-24648	0	3	170006.1	0.84%
2005	54317.11	0	20435.39	-25486.03	0	3	219272.6	0.69%
2006	56055.25	0	21130.19	-26301.59	0	3	270156.4	0.83%
2007	57624.80	0	21806.35	-23829.35	0	3	325758.2	0.78%
2008	59814.54	0	22416.93	-24669.44	0	3	383320.3	0.76%
2009	59575.28	0	23268.78	-24853.22	0	3	441311.1	0.89%
2010	60528.49	0	23175.70	-25111.26	0	3	499904	0.94%
2011	62465.40	-549000	23546.51	-25803.57	9	12	11112.38	1.43%
2012	64339.36	-90000	97200.00	-48461.81	2	14	34189.93	2.00%
2013	66269.54	-139050	116802.00	-54921.46	3	17	23290.01	2.00%
2014	44367.46	-143222	129854.16	-52266.49	3	20	2023.644	2.00%
2015	45698.48	-98345	157352.69	-60915.35	2	22	45814.03	2.00%
2016	47069.44	-202592	178280.60	-67605.01	4	26	967.4713	2.00%
2017	48481.52	-156502	217016.11	-79649.29	3	29	30313.81	2.00%
2018	49935.97	-214929	249318.12	-89776.23	4	33	24862.26	2.00%
2019	51434.05	-221377	292218.03	-103095.6	4	37	44041.41	2.00%
2020	52977.07	-285023	337467.55	-117133.4	5	42	32329.38	2.00%
2021	54566.38	-293574	394563.41	-134738.9	5	47	53146.26	2.00%
2022	56203.37	-362857	454781.30	-153295.4	6	53	47978.11	2.00%
2023	57889.47	-436034	528223.65	-175833.9	7	60	22223.62	2.00%
2024	59626.16	-449115	615928.70	-202666.5	7	67	45997.35	2.00%
2025	61414.94	-528672	708420.66	-230950.7	8	75	56210.13	2.00%
2026	63257.39	-612599	816798.45	-264016.8	9	84	59650.38	2.00%
2027	65155.11	-701085	942258.69	-302224.1	10	94	63754.71	2.00%
2028	67109.76	-866541	1086065.32	-345952.5	12	106	4435.786	2.00%
2029	69123.06	-892538	1261453.31	-399172.9	12	118	43301.52	2.00%
2030	71196.75	-1072533	1446387.13	-455275.2	14	132	33077.41	2.00%
2031	73332.65	-1183617	1666532.15	-521959.4	15	147	67366.18	2.00%
2032	75532.63	-1381675	1911588.13	-596136.2	17	164	76675.62	2.00%

結果還是很不同的。雖然在2000-2010年間損失了一些租金，但是到2032年房子是164個（以前是152個）。當我把兩個不同的策略（nondiscriminated versus 1% rule）的結果放在一起的時候side by side比較的時候，結論就很明顯了。

	nondiscriminated	1%	nondiscriminated	1%	nondiscriminated	1%
	Rent Income	Rent Income	# of Houses	# of Houses	Cash	Cash
1992	0	0	0	0	10800	10800
1993	0	0	1	1	10768.95083	10768.95
1994	5202.47731	5202.47731	2	2	21940.37897	21940.38
1995	10675.48344	10675.4834	3	3	2021.865654	2021.866
1996	16461.59546	16461.5955	3	3	44241.70112	44241.7
1997	16955.44333	16955.4433	3	3	87547.82396	87547.82
1998	17345.41852	17345.4185	3	3	131665.5329	131665.5
1999	17622.94522	17622.9452	3	3	176649.7589	176649.8
2000	18010.65001	18010.65	3	3	222951.9732	222952
2001	18623.01212	18623.0121	3	3	20658.71347	20658.71
2002	19144.45645	19144.4565	3	3	75624.15467	75624.15
2003	19450.76776	19450.7678	4	3	29224.92243	122224.9
2004	26530.84722	19898.1354	4	3	83638.81965	170006.1
2005	27247.1801	20435.3851	5	3	29717.07345	219272.6
2006	35216.98027	21130.1882	6	3	687.7217815	270156.4
2007	43612.70837	21806.3542	6	3	71553.97776	325758.2
2008	44833.86421	22416.9321	7	3	35807.86251	383320.3
2009	54293.80955	23268.7755	8	3	18516.22828	441311.1
2010	61801.86779	23175.7004	9	3	13147.478	499904
2011	70639.53488	23546.5116	10	12	45320.93284	11112.38
2012	81000	97200	13	14	12058.48667	34189.93
2013	108459	116802	15	17	41668.46712	23290.01
2014	114577.2	129854.16	18	20	9708.228684	2023.644
2015	141617.4192	157352.688	20	22	42483.93033	45814.03
2016	162073.2686	178280.596	23	26	36940.13538	967.4713
2017	191975.7867	217016.107	26	29	48758.25059	30313.81
2018	223526.5899	249318.12	30	33	25252.62663	24862.26
2019	265652.7549	292218.03	34	37	25836.09108	44041.41
2020	310105.3159	337467.55	38	42	51975.14431	32329.38
2021	356985.9431	394563.411	43	47	46487.80324	53146.26
2022	416076.511	454781.303	49	53	14226.29764	47978.11
2023	488357.7096	528223.645	55	60	22856.17911	22223.62
2024	564601.3112	615928.703	62	67	10700.72634	45997.35
2025	655553.4497	708420.663	69	75	49990.4794	56210.13
2026	751454.5753	816798.451	78	84	7690.015301	59650.38
2027	874954.5012	942258.694	87	94	34789.9393	63754.71
2028	1005188.113	1086065.32	97	106	63280.55534	4435.786
2029	1154348.786	1261453.31	109	118	27173.12362	43301.52
2030	1336069.466	1446387.13	122	132	16336.13273	33077.41
2031	1540279.717	1666532.15	136	147	41155.97633	67366.18
2032	1768544.121	1911588.13	152	164	31609.61284	76675.62

1999年前的數值都是相同的。2000年開始1% rule case停止了房子的收購。 所以到2010年，nonD case有9棟房子，租金收入6萬1，現金1萬3。1% rule case有3棟房子，租金2萬3，現金50萬。2011年，rent/value恢複到1.43%，1% rule case買入9棟，nonD買入一棟。2012年，在潛伏爪牙忍受了11年無作為後，隻花了兩年時間1% rule case（14棟，現金3萬4）就已經超越了nonD case（13棟，現金1萬2）。結論很明顯，1% rule帶來跟多的財富。

那麽是不是這個門檻越高越好呢？比如1.5% rule？不一定。因為好deal是需要時間來顯出它的好處的。門檻高出手少，等到好機會來的時候一下買入好多個，但這些房子不一定會在你退休前就能產生更大的效應。比如有一個年代，每年的rent/value都低於1%，持續到你退休。nonD你不斷地買入房子產生效益。1% rule阻止你買入房子沒有任何效益。對於我的例子，大體是這樣的。

rent/value	# of house
0.60%	152
0.70%	155
0.80%	155
0.90%	145
1%	164
1.10%	150
1.20%	150
1.30%	150
1.40%	150
1.50%	164
1.60%	164
1.70%	164
1.80%	164
1.90%	136
2.00%	107

對這個現實世界的例子，投資回報在1%，1.5-1.8%之間達到最高。