分析市場和個股的AI 網站

https://chat.findata-be.uk/

https://voxlink-org.github.io/flamels-recipe/

 

華人碼農搞的

大勢：

 

Here's an overview of the latest market trends:

Market Sentiment:

The market is currently in a state of "greed" according to the CNN Fear & Greed Index, with a score of 55, classifying it as "Neutral." Both the SPY and QQQ 14-day and 6-day RSIs are in the neutral range, indicating no clear overbought or oversold conditions. The VIX (Volatility Index) is stable at 16.65, suggesting a neutral market sentiment. Over the past 5 days, SPY has seen a slight change of 0.09%, while QQQ has gained 0.39%. On the last trading day, SPY was up 0.75% and QQQ was up 1.24%.

Key Market News and Drivers:

Recent news indicates several factors influencing the market:

• Trade Tensions and Tariffs: President Trump has raised tariffs on India to 50% over Russian oil purchases, and there are ongoing discussions about foreign investment pledges and their enforcement. Super Micro stock sank 20% after earnings, with the CEO mentioning steps to reduce the impact of Trump's tariffs.
• Tech Sector Activity:
  • Apple shares popped 5% ahead of an announcement of increased U.S. investment to $600 billion over the next four years.
  • OpenAI is providing ChatGPT Enterprise to the government for $1.
  • AMD stock slumped 7% due to an earnings miss and concerns about China AI chip shipments.
  • Shopify stock soared 20% on rosy guidance, with the CFO stating that tariff hits "did not materialize."
  • Hedge funds were net sellers of technology stocks in July, indicating some caution.
• Earnings Reports:
  • Eli Lilly's earnings are anticipated, with Wall Street being optimistic.
  • Match Group popped 10% after upbeat guidance.
  • Disney earnings topped expectations, driven by streaming and parks.
  • McDonald's saw a U.S. sales rebound, though concerns about low-income consumers persist.
  • Uber beat on revenue and announced a $20 billion stock buyback.
• Macroeconomic Indicators:
  • The S&P 500 is up +20.2% year-over-year as of August 5, 2025.
  • The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield is 4.22%.
  • The Federal Funds Effective Rate was 4.33% in July 2025.
  • Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed a +2.0% change from a year ago in Q2 2025.
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was +2.7% year-over-year in June 2025.
  • The Unemployment Rate was 4.2% in July 2025.
  • The Fed rate prediction for September 17, 2025, shows a 92.6% probability of the rate being 4.00 - 4.25%.
• Other Notable News:
  • Corporate share repurchases are on pace for a record in 2025, bolstering the market.
  • Claire's, a tween accessories retailer, filed for bankruptcy again.
  • Discussions around student loan forgiveness and alternatives to the SAVE plan are ongoing.

Overall Analysis:

The market is currently exhibiting a neutral to slightly greedy sentiment, with major indices showing modest gains. The tech sector is a significant driver, with strong performances from Apple, Shopify, and Uber, but also some headwinds for chipmakers like AMD due to earnings and trade concerns. Corporate buybacks are providing a strong tailwind for the market. Macroeconomic indicators show steady, albeit moderate, growth and inflation. Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to trade tariffs, remain a factor to watch. The Fed is expected to continue with rate cuts in the near future.

當前市場情緒和指標：

• CNN 恐懼與貪婪指數 (Fear & Greed Index): 目前指數為55，評級為“貪婪”，分類為“中性”。這表明市場情緒並非極度恐慌或極度貪婪，處於一個相對平衡的狀態。
• RSI (相對強弱指數): SPY和QQQ的14日和6日RSI均處於“中性”區域，沒有明顯的超買或超賣信號。
• VIX (波動率指數): VIX目前為16.61，趨勢穩定，月度範圍在14.93至20.38之間。VIX處於相對較低的水平，表明市場對未來波動的預期不高，情緒偏向穩定。
• 市場變化: SPY和QQQ在過去5天和1天都有小幅上漲，顯示出積極的短期動能。
• 恐懼與貪婪指數90天趨勢: 在過去90天裏，該指數的平均值為52.2，範圍在2到77之間，整體呈“顯著上升”趨勢。這表明市場情緒從之前的恐懼或中性逐漸轉向貪婪，但目前仍在中性區域。

宏觀經濟和衰退風險：

盡管市場情緒相對中性，但對2025年美國經濟衰退的擔憂依然存在，並且有多個指標和專家觀點指向回調的可能性：

• 貿易戰和關稅: 特朗普總統的激進關稅政策，包括對印度提高關稅，以及可能實施的10%基準關稅和40%對等關稅，正在加劇貿易緊張局勢，可能對企業利潤和家庭購買力造成侵蝕。
• 通貨膨脹和利率政策: 核心PCE通脹率仍處於2.7%的較高水平，盡管美聯儲可能謹慎降息，但高通脹會侵蝕購買力，高利率會增加借貸成本，從而抑製投資和消費。
• GDP增長放緩: 美聯儲預計GDP增長將放緩，2025年第一季度GDP增長率為負（-0.5%），這可能預示著經濟疲軟。
• 消費者支出和勞動力市場: 盡管失業率較低（4.1%），但有經濟學家指出，勞動力市場存在深層問題，如勞動力萎縮和招聘凍結，消費者支出也可能出現疲軟跡象。
• 企業盈利壓力: 關稅和經濟放緩可能導致企業利潤收縮。
• 預測概率:
  • 紐約聯儲預測2025年衰退概率為28.7%。
  • 摩根大通預測為40%。
  • 高盛預測為30%。
  • 福布斯援引專家預測，到2025年底衰退概率為65-80%。
  • 亞特蘭大聯儲的Nowcast模型也暗示2025年第一季度可能出現負增長。
• 收益率曲線倒掛: 收益率曲線再次倒掛，這在曆史上是經濟衰退的可靠先行指標。
• 消費者信心下降: 2月份消費者信心下降，可能影響未來的消費支出。

總結和回調可能性：

當前美國股市整體風險處於中性偏高的水平。

• 積極因素: 市場情緒尚未達到極度貪婪，VIX較低，短期市場表現積極，且風險調整後的回報（如QQQ的夏普比率和索提諾比率）依然優秀。
• 潛在風險和回調可能性:
  • 宏觀經濟逆風: 貿易緊張、持續的通脹壓力、以及GDP增長放緩的跡象，都增加了經濟衰退的風險。
  • 估值壓力: 盡管市場情緒中性，但主要股指（如QQQ所代表的科技股）已處於高位，估值相對較高，這使得市場對負麵消息的敏感度增加。
  • 動能減弱跡象: 盡管短期均線看漲，但一些動量指標（如MACD和ADX）顯示出動能減弱的趨勢，這可能預示著短期內上漲乏力，甚至可能出現回調。
  • 曆史經驗: 收益率曲線倒掛和消費者信心下降等曆史指標，都增加了未來回調的可能性。

結論：

雖然目前市場情緒尚未達到極度恐慌，且短期表現尚可，但從宏觀經濟層麵和部分技術指標來看，美國股市在2025年麵臨較高的回調風險。 投資者應保持謹慎，關注經濟數據、貿易政策變化以及企業盈利情況。建議采取防禦性策略，例如：

• 降低對高波動性股票的敞口。
• 增加現金儲備。
• 考慮配置防禦性板塊，如公用事業和醫療保健。
• 對於長期投資者，可以考慮分批買入，以應對可能的市場波動。

重要的是要認識到，市場預測並非百分之百準確，但這些風險信號值得投資者高度關注。