Jim Rogers Fund performance since 2005 - 還不錯

來源: 於 2025-08-02 11:07:01 [博客] [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 本文已被閱讀：次

Below is a year-by-year snapshot of the Rogers International Commodity Index-Total Return (RICI-TR) since 2005.
Returns are calculated from the year-end closing values published by the index sponsor (Beeland Interests/Bloomberg) and the publicly available history through 2019 on the German-language Wikipedia page; more recent year-end levels (2020-24) come from the Bloomberg RICIGLTR series and the index level shown in the Global Macro Indicators data sheet dated 6 Sep 2024. (Wikipedia)

Year RICI-TR % Comment
2005 +19.6% China-led commodity boom underway
2006 +3.0% consolidation year
2007 +29.9% energy & metals spike
2008 -41.3% GFC crash (oil > $140 to < $40)
2009 +26.2% recovery rally
2010 +19.0% broad reflation
2011 –6.9% Euro-area wobble; ags soar, metals fade
2012 +2.0% sideways drift
2013 –4.5% dollar strength begins to bite
2014 -22.2% oil collapses (OPEC market-share war)
2015 -26.1% China hard-landing fears
2016 +13.4% trough in the super-cycle
2017 +4.9% mild reflation
2018 –9.2% trade-war nerves
2019 +11.9% “everything rally” year
2020 -18.3% Covid shock; WTI briefly below zero
2021 +52.6% post-Covid demand surge & supply pinch
2022 +23.0% Ukraine war, energy & grains spike
2023 –8.2% mean-reversion as energy rolls over
2024 +11.0% softer USD; metals & cocoa strength

Long-run score-card (2005-2024)

Metric RICI-TR S&P 500 TR (for context)
Cumulative return +39 % +666 %
Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 1.6 % p.a. 9.8 % p.a.
Worst calendar year 2008 (-41 %) 2008 (-37 %)
Best calendar year 2021 (+52 %) 2013 (+32 %)

Interpretation:

  • The index has delivered episodic bursts of out-performance (2005-07, 2021-22) but long “winter” stretches in between.

  • Over the full 20-year window commodities as a broad asset class barely kept pace with T-Bills, dramatically under-running US equities.

  • Volatility is equity-like (std-dev ~19 %), meaning the long-run risk-adjusted payoff was low (Sharpe ~0.10).

How those numbers translate for real-world investors

Access route Inception Price change to 31 Jul 2025 Notes
RJI ETN (NYSE, tracks RICI-TR net of 0.75 % fee) 17 Oct 2007 -19 % price / -0.9 % p.a. TR Roll-cost & fees subtract ≈1 – 1.5 % p.a. vs raw index
MarketAccess RICI UCITS ETF (ticker MRIC) 31 Jul 2006 +3 % price / +0.2 % p.a. TR EUR-denominated, swap-based; spreads wider than RJI

Take-aways for your analysis

  1. Cycle-timing matters. Blind buy-and-hold of broad commodities has not been rewarding; returns came in two tight clusters (’05-07 and ’21-22).

  2. Carry & fees eat a chunk. Futures roll-drag plus 0.7-0.9 % expense ratios mean public trackers lag the published index by ~1 % every year.

  3. Portfolio role is tactical diversification. The index retains value as an inflation hedge and tail-risk diversifier (note the +52 % pop in 2021 when stocks/stagflation worries surfaced), but expecting equity-like long-term growth would be misguided.