我問chatgpt 你這個看法怎樣，它的回答

What it’s saying (in simple terms):

• Round 1:
  China makes washing machines for 500元, Trump slaps a 100% tariff → price becomes 1000元 in the U.S.
  → China avoids this by exporting the machine to Vietnam, relabeling it “Made in Vietnam”, and exporting to the U.S.
  → Vietnam’s tariff is only 40% → so price in U.S. is 700元.

• Round 2:
  The U.S. realizes this workaround and changes the rule: tariff is based on where it’s actually made, not the label.
  → China responds by disassembling the washing machine into parts: drum to Vietnam, casing to Malaysia, local assembly there with local parts.
  → Since parts from China only account for 10% of the final product, only that 10% gets the high tariff.
  → Final product taxed mostly at 40%, only 10% subject to extra China tariffs → still sells for around 700元, evading the full tariff.

• Round 3:
  Trump pre-emptively raises the tariff to 245% on Chinese products.
  → Now even if 10% of the parts are from China, the extra tariff is 245% × 10% = 24.5%, plus 40% base tariff = 64.5% total.
  → Now the price rises to 820元 — makes it less profitable, Southeast Asian countries won’t want to use Chinese parts anymore, and China’s workaround collapses.

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Does this logic make sense?

Yes — it’s very reasonable and aligns with real-world trade strategies.

• Countries often redirect or reassemble products in third countries to avoid tariffs.

• The U.S. responds by tightening rules of origin (like what % of a product must be made where).

• A huge tariff like 245% is designed to close loopholes preemptively, making it too costly even when parts are rerouted.