No, you can not. But one must distinguish two cases:

來源: 於 2023-11-10 13:53:00 [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 本文已被閱讀：次

1, the probability as "to happen", which is of course always independently 1/2.

2, the probability as "to have already happened" in the whole event.

I think we are talking about 2 here.

Just think of it in my verson of the Snow white puzzle. When she woke up, how likely it happened to January 1st? Very unlikely, wasn't it?