"計算機算出來.."

It still doesn't make any sense. The model I presented above is cetainly wildly simplified, but it doesn't lose any generality. The core logic is there. Anyone with a clear mind should recognize it let alone mathematicians or statistcians.

The so-called computer result seems more like a gimmick to mislead the dicision makers. But why would technical people want to impose a false scenario on the politicians? This remains a mystery to me.

Unless I am really missing something here. But I doubt it.