That is a fair assessment giving Kobe is healthy

but the key is Kobe can remain healthy most of the season. Comparing 14-15 Lakers to 12-13 Rockets (8th seeds)

Offensive
14-15 JLIN/Nash/Clarkson > 12-13 JLIN/TD/Beverly
14-15 healthy Kobe/Nick Young ~= 12-13 Jame Harden/fillers
14-15 Johnson/Henry 14-15 Boozer/Randle >> 12-13 PPat/Dmo/Tjones
14-15 Hill/Davis ~= 12-13 Asik/GS

Defensive
14-15 JLIN/Nash/Clarkson 14-15 healthy Kobe/Nick Young > 12-13 James Harden/fillers
14-15 Johnson/Henry 14-15 Boozer/Randle > 12-13 PPat/Dmo/Tjones
14-15 Hill/Davis
These two teams are very comparable, but system wise Scott > Mchale (really do not like his free wheel system). Therefore, my expectation for Lakers next season is making playoffs. If they can get up to No. 4 seeds that beats my expectation. If they miss playoffs, that is below my expectation.