from premed to med school estimates closer to 5–10%

• Among people who actually apply to med school: recent data puts overall MD/DO acceptance around roughly 40–45% per application cycle.

• Among all freshmen who say they’re premed: various analyses and advisor anecdotes suggest that well under 20% end up matriculating, with some estimates closer to 5–10% at many schools.

Why the number looks so low

• Tons of freshmen change majors, discover other careers they like more, or decide the path isn’t worth it.

• Others are filtered out by GPA, prereqs, or the MCAT, so they never even apply.

• But if you stick with it, keep your grades strong, and build a solid application, your personal odds look much closer to that 40–45% applicant acceptance number than the scary “7% of freshmen” stat.