在sun belt有些地方即使現在房價已經漲到高點，現金流還是不錯，算了一下居然可以是正數。 例如以下四個隨便挑的四個SFH都有正現金流，算上principal，cash on cash至少都有5%以上。如果假設每年房價升值4%，則總回報率可到20%以上。
| Offer |
$299,900 |
$429,000 |
$469,500 |
$385,000 |
| Asking price |
$299,900 |
$429,000 |
$469,500 |
$385,000 |
| Monthly Rent |
$1,883 |
$2,400 |
$2,495 |
$2,053 |
| Equity |
$74,975 |
$107,250 |
$117,375 |
$96,250 |
| Loan Amount |
$224,925 |
$321,750 |
$352,125 |
$288,750 |
| Loan Duration |
360 |
360 |
360 |
360 |
| Loan Interest % |
3.88% |
3.88% |
3.88% |
3.88% |
| Monthly Mortgage |
$1,058 |
$1,513 |
$1,656 |
$1,358 |
| 1st Month Principal Portion |
$331 |
$474 |
$519 |
$425 |
| 1st Month Interest Portion |
$726 |
$1,039 |
$1,137 |
$932 |
| Property Tax Rate |
1.0103% |
1.1600% |
1.1600% |
1.1600% |
| Monthly Property tax |
$253 |
$415 |
$454 |
$372 |
| Monthly Insurance |
$68 |
$68 |
$68 |
$68 |
| Monthly HOA |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Reserve |
$94 |
$120 |
$125 |
$103 |
| Management Fee |
$132 |
$168 |
$175 |
$144 |
| Monthly Total Expense |
$1,604 |
$2,284 |
$2,477 |
$2,045 |
| Free cash flow |
$279 |
$116 |
$18 |
$8 |
| Free cash flow + principal |
$610 |
$590 |
$536 |
$434 |
| Cash on cash wo principal |
4.46% |
1.30% |
0.18% |
0.10% |
| Cash on cash + principal |
9.76% |
6.60% |
5.48% |
5.41% |
| Home Price Appreciation |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
| Total Annual Return |
25.76% |
22.60% |
21.48% |
21.41% |
| Cap Rate |
5.35% |
4.56% |
4.28% |
4.26% |
| Annual rent / offer price |
7.53% |
6.71% |
6.38% |
6.40% |
但是，但是，但是，它們現金流高是有它們的道理的。下圖是Phoenix 從2000年到2021年房價圖。在很短的時間裏，單位房價曾從最高點的$190跌到過最低點的$80。這說明這裏的風險非常高。因為這裏有的是土地而且很容易申請到permit。房價從根本上是有供求關係決定的，一旦供不應求，房價就會飆升，建築商就會湧入建新房；而一旦新房過剩，就會照成供大於求，房價就會迅速下降。
未來會發生什麽，誰也不能預測。但是投資101，在一個高效的市場，各類投資的risk-adjusted-return都會完全一樣。這個定理在這裏也適用。在灣區和南加，基本沒有土地，建築商非常難找到大塊土地建新房，所以房價相對穩定，風險也小很多，所以市場上基本很難找到有正現金流的房子。
