The worst case senoria of Tariff war for US

It is very hard to guess the future narrative and the end game of the tariff war.

But we can search information and make some educated guess.

The worst outcome for US will to some degree a replay of OIL induced inflation in 1970s.

Here is how:

1. China will be more focused on domestic stimulatiing and willing to shrink its exports to US (net suplus is rougly 350 Billion).  Therefore, not only it matched US tariff, and will match it going forward if US choose to escalate the tariff war. 

2. China will not ceds price--lowering its currrency value and lowering export price to US, both. It will hold the export price steady, and let the US importer to pay the price, who will pass it to US customers--inflation.

3. And if US choose to import less from China becuase of tariff, then there is not substitue supply chain for US in the world. China is the only economy with manufacturing power to supply US needs. Most of then are electronic and machinary products. Without import from Chinese, even BA can survive. A lot of mid and small companies are going to have big problems.

It this case, we will see higher price and shortage in US market. 

This could be the worse, Hope that rational and cool minded will prevail.