ZT: ECB Warns That REITS Could Take A Big Hit
By Avi Gilburt Nov 13, 2024 - 9:23 AM EST
CRE - commercial real estate
GFC - global financial crisis
上周，我們發表了一篇文章關於美國商業地產貸款和紐約聯儲最近的研究，其中監管機構警告說，銀行在識別不良貸款方麵進展遲緩，這通常被稱為延期和假裝 extend-and-pretend 行為，導致短期內到期的商用地產貸款數量增加。 這代表著一個重大的金融穩定風險。根據紐約聯儲的說法，這可能會導致銀行遭受巨大而突然的資本打擊，並最終導致存款擠兌和 CRE 債務和基礎 CRE 財產的減價出售。
Bottom line
Believe it or not, there are more major issues on the larger bank balance sheets as compared to smaller banks, which we have covered in past articles. Moreover, consider that there was one major issue which caused the GFC back in 2008, whereas today, we currently have many more large issues on bank balance sheets. These risk factors include major issues in commercial real estate, rising risks in consumer debt (approaching 2007 levels), underwater long-term securities, over-the-counter derivatives, and high-risk shadow banking (the lending for which has exploded). So, in our opinion, the current banking environment presents even greater risks than what we have seen during the 2008 GFC.
