We need to closely watch 2 things

1: Can TSLA maintain the EV car sales growth rate of 20-25% in 2025, and improve its growth margin --- Trump is likely to cut the Federal EV credit, and it is not clear if this will hurt or improve Tesla margin

2: Can TSLA deliver the promised "limited" unsupervised FSD in 2025

Failing either of the above 2 goals will change the value I estimated for Tesla and we need to revisit