The Sahm Rule and Tomorrow's Nonfarm Payrolls

Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate (July 2024) are scheduled for release on Aug 2, 2024.

The Sahm Rule is named after Claudia Sahm.  The Sahm Rule says that a recession appears on the horizon after the unemployment rate's current three month moving average exceeds the lowest 3 month moveing average of the trailong 12 months by 0.5% or more.

Tomorrow's non farm payrolls and unemployment rate (July/24) are the critical indicator of the labour market health.