比較黨派對犯罪率影響是一個困難的研究，因為牽扯到太多變量，但至少必須控製人口規模和組成，富裕程度，和州議會的黨派傾向

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There is no single public dataset or tool that fully isolates and compares city crime rates based on the governing party (mayor vs. city council), while also controlling for population size, demographics, and state legislative control. However, researchers and think tanks have attempted to analyze these variables in various ways using combinations of the following data sources:

Key Datasets You Can Use

  1. FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) / NIBRS

    • Source: FBI

    • Crime stats by city and type of offense.

    • Limitations: Some cities do not fully report; lags behind by a year or more.

  2. Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS)

    • Broader crime data, including victimization surveys, but not as city-specific.

  3. Census Data / American Community Survey (ACS)

    • Demographics, income, education, race, housing, and more.

  4. Ballotpedia / Open States / NCSL

    • Information on party control of state legislatures and governor’s office.

    • Mayoral and city council party affiliations for major U.S. cities.

  5. ICMA and NLC data

    • Details on city government structures (strong mayor vs. council-manager).

Approaches Researchers Use

To evaluate the impact of political control on crime while adjusting for other factors, researchers typically:

  • Match cities on population size, racial makeup, income, and region.

  • Control for urban vs. suburban character.

  • Compare cities with similar governance structures (e.g., strong-mayor vs. council-manager).

  • Use multivariate regression analysis to isolate the effect of political control on crime rates.

Known Studies and Examples

  • A 2020 report by Third Way tried to compare violent crime rates by party of mayor, but it was criticized for methodological weaknesses.

  • Academic papers (e.g., in Urban Affairs Review or Criminology & Public Policy) sometimes attempt more nuanced analysis using the above techniques, but usually focus on subsets of cities or crime types.

Challenges

  • Many cities have nonpartisan elections, making mayor/council party affiliation unclear.

  • Crime rates are affected by many external variables: policing practices, economy, drug epidemics, etc.

  • Causality is difficult to prove—party control might correlate with other deeper factors.