比爾-蓋茲：10年內，AI將替代大部分醫生與教師的工作

比爾·蓋茨說，未來十年，人工智慧的進步將意味著世界上的“大多數事情”將不再需要人類。

這是這位 Microsoft 聯合創始人兼億萬富翁慈善家在 2 月份接受 NBC 的“今夜秀”採訪時告訴喜劇演員吉米·法倫 （Jimmy Fallon） 的話。蓋茨解釋說，目前，專業知識仍然“很少見”，並指出我們在許多領域仍然依賴人類專家，包括“一位偉大的醫生”或“一位偉大的老師”。

但是，蓋茨說，“有了人工智慧，在未來十年裡，這將變得免費、司空見慣——很棒的醫療建議、很棒的輔導。

換句話說，世界正在進入一個蓋茨在上個月接受哈佛大學教授和幸福感專家亞瑟·布魯克斯（Arthur Brooks）採訪時所說的“自由智慧”的新時代。蓋茨表示，其結果將是人工智慧技術的快速發展，這些技術幾乎觸及我們生活的方方麵麵，從改進的藥物和診斷到廣泛使用的人工智慧導師和虛擬助手。

“這非常深刻，甚至有點可怕——因為它發生得非常快，而且沒有上限，”蓋茨告訴布魯克斯。

關於大多數人究竟如何適應這個 AI 驅動的未來的爭論正在進行中。一些專家說 AI 將幫助人類更高效地工作，而不是完全取代人類，並刺激經濟增長，從而創造更多就業機會。

Others, like Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman, counter that continued technological advancements over the next several years will change what most jobs look like across nearly every industry, and have a "hugely destabilizing" impact on the workforce.

"These tools will only temporarily augment human intelligence," Suleyman wrote in his book "The Coming Wave," which was published in 2023. "They will make us smarter and more efficient for a time, and will unlock enormous amounts of economic growth, but they are fundamentally labor replacing."

人工智慧既令人擔憂，又是一個“絕佳的機會”
Gates is optimistic about the overall benefits AI can provide to humanity, like "breakthrough treatments for deadly diseases, innovative solutions for climate change, and high-quality education for everyone," he wrote last year.

Talking to Fallon, Gates reaffirmed his belief that certain types of jobs will likely never be replaced by AI, noting that people probably don't want to see machines playing baseball, for example.

"There will be some things we reserve for ourselves. But in terms of making things and moving things and growing food, over time those will be basically solved problems," Gates said.

AI's development does come with "understandable and valid" concerns, Gates wrote in a 2023 blog post. Today's top-of-the-line AI programs are rife with errors and prone to enabling the spread of falsehoods online, for example.

But if he had to start a new business from scratch, he'd launch an "AI-centric" startup, Gates told CNBC Make It in September 2024.

"Today, somebody could raise billions of dollars for a new AI company [that's just] a few sketch ideas," he said, adding: "I'm encouraging young people at Microsoft, OpenAI, wherever I find them: 'Hey, here's the frontier.' Because you're taking a fresher look at this than I am, and that's your fantastic opportunity."

蓋茨幾年前就預測了人工智慧的潛力
Gates saw the AI revolution coming nearly a decade ago: When asked which industry he'd focus on if he had to start over from scratch, he quickly chose AI.

"The work in artificial intelligence today is at a really profound level," Gates said at a 2017 event at Columbia University alongside Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. He pointed to the "profound milestone" of Google's DeepMind AI lab creating a computer program that could defeat humans at the board game Go.

At the time, the technology was years away from ChatGPT-style generative text, powered by large language models. Yet by 2023, even Gates was surprised by the speed of AI's development. He'd challenged OpenAI to create a model that could get a top score on a high school AP Biology exam, expecting the task to take two or three years, he wrote in his blog post.

"They finished it in just a few months," wrote Gates. He called the achievement "the most important advance in technology since the graphical user interface [in 1980]."

披露：NBCUniversal 是 CNBC 和 NBC 的母公司，後者播放《今夜秀》。

 

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/markets/bill-gates-within-10-years-ai-will-replace-many-doctors-and-teachers-humans-won-t-be-needed-for-most-things/ar-AA1BHrHv