soxx 擬合數據

來源: 2026-05-10 16:25:31 [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 本文已被閱讀:

SOXX LOG-LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS

REGRESSION STATISTICS:
• Annualized Return:     23.98%
• R² (Goodness of Fit):  0.9732
• Volatility (σ):        0.1587
• Observations:          3881
• Daily Slope:           0.000588
• P-value:               0.0000

PREDICTION PARAMETERS:
• Period:               3 years forward
• Chart Scale:          Logarithmic (straight trend lines)
• Confidence Bands:     ±1σ, ±2σ, ±3σ (straight on log scale)

FUTURE PRICE LEVELS (±2σ):
• 2027-01-15: +2σ=$485, +1σ=$414, Mean=$353, -1σ=$301, -2σ=$257
• 2027-06-17: +2σ=$531, +1σ=$453, Mean=$386, -1σ=$330, -2σ=$281
• 2028-01-18: +2σ=$602, +1σ=$514, Mean=$438, -1σ=$374, -2σ=$319
• 2028-06-21: +2σ=$660, +1σ=$563, Mean=$480, -1σ=$410, -2σ=$350

DATA SOURCE:
• Historical Period:    2010-12-01 to 2026-05-08
• Records:              3881 (DB + yfinance)
• Current Price:        $492.36 (latest)
• Sigma Position:       +3.03σ
• Fetch Mode:           DB if sufficient