Even if ORCL can meet all their milestones, and reach $20 per share by 2030 as guided by management team, the YoY earning growth is backend loaded, meaning majority of these ER hyper growth is expected to come in 2028 to 2030.
What this means is that wall street has a lot of ammunition in short term to squeeze retails as they can create stories both on earning front (high PE), as well as expense front (high debt)
In fact, the forward looking 12 month EPS is only $7.3 as of now. So, 30 PE of that is $220, and 25 PE of that is $180.
If you look at $20 EPS by 2030, you would think ORCL will be at least $600 by that time. But big instituions want to manage two things
a: Control the risk of ORCL F' up or OpenAI blowing up
b: Collect shares at lowest possible level so their profit and risk ratio is more favorable
We do not know if they can take this to 180, but nothing is impossible
