我昨晚臨睡前粗粗研究了一下，請見內——

1, $145m 2nd Quarter Revenue -2025, 36% increased up from 2024, 106% from 2023. But operating cost increased over 100% from 2024, net income loss increased following the OPC. EPS is in red $0.46 (estimated based on quarterly earnings) vs. 0.38 for 2024.

2, The balance sheet shows improving liquidity, with no immediate solvency risks, but rising debt, implied Capex is short.

3, 2nd Q 2025 data: + current ratio 2.7 shows strong short term liquidity; - profit margin is deeply negative 46%

4, Potential growth prospects : Backlog supports visibility, with new wins in Europe and defense (e.g., hypersonic tech partnerships); Neutron could unlock $1B+ annual revenue by 2027-2028 via reusable medium-lift missions, targeting mega-constellations like Starlink alternatives. Diversification into spacecraft (Photon platform) and components adds recurring revenue; Rising demand for small-sat launches (global market ~$8B by 2027) and U.S. government spending ($25B+ NASA/DoD budget).

5, Risks: Electron’s 50+ missions are reliable, but scaling production is capital-intensive; Ongoing losses (~$200M+ annually) and $468M debt may pressure margins if funding dries up. High short interest (14%) adds volatility; Dominance by SpaceX (cheaper Falcon 9 rideshares) squeezes pricing; regulatory hurdles (e.g., FAA approvals) and geopolitical tensions could impact contracts. Broader space sector slowdowns (e.g., funding crunches) pose threats.

 

上麵的數據和信息都很重要，但我覺得影響RKLB的growth，也是最大volatility原因，是它受SpaceX和政府的製約。它幾乎不可能成長為另一個SpaceX,那就是說它會有更多競爭對手出現, 但同時因為它的niche是small-lifting launch, 所以它也比較容易與其它比它大的competitors 合作……在我看來股價$47對longterm holding 還是高了，但short term speculating, bet 20% even 50% stock price rises 都是可能的，那就要懂TA了。 讓我們來問問西糖是怎麽想的，是否$47是so called 金叉？lol