if Beijing/Shanghai were in Mexico

來源: 2016-11-24 20:47:08 [博客] [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 本文已被閱讀:

I initially titled it 'if .... were in the US', but then find it more appropriate to use Mexico.

in terms of population density, jobs/income levels, education/healthcare/public services, Mexico City is probably the North America city most comparable to a major city in China.

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/compare_cities.jsp?country1=China&country2=Mexico&city1=Shanghai&city2=Mexico+City&tracking=getDispatchComparison

you can see that's how much properties are over valued with the current exchange rates.

someday the valuations will have to converge.... either house prices in beijing/shanghai will have to drop by 80%... or if the price doesn't drop in RMB terms, then the currency will have to devalue by 80%, which means $1 = 35RMB.

won't see that overnight, but market forces eventually win... always.