By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine????????
（在過去的三年裏，Giorgio Provinciali作為獨立媒體一直在烏克蘭戰爭的所有戰線上進行報道。他們記錄了戰爭的方方麵麵包括自衛裝備、急救工具、車輛、燃料和基本物資。他們的報道工作包括超過2500篇文章和近130個視頻錄影，提供來自被轟炸城市和活躍戰區的真實、第一手報道。
他們正在眾籌，目標是購買和在他們的車輛上安裝反無人機РЕБ設備，以免受激戰地區的無人機攻擊。我們計劃使用的Reb Contra-drone 9 Ultra在多個頻率（200-1200MHz、23902500 MHz和57255850 MHz）上運行，單價約為9,000歐元。他們經曆了多次危及生命的險境，包括ДРГ伏擊、距離400米的熱壓炸彈、在麵前爆炸的炮彈，以及最近的FPV無人機襲擊。在您的幫助下，他們可以繼續提供來自烏克蘭的關鍵的第一手資訊。
願意支持他們工作的讀者，下麵是他們最新的捐款PayPal鏈接：https://www.paypal.com/pools/c/9ijrLlBdsL）
Pavlohrad Estonia is digging a nearly 40-kilometer-long anti-tank ditch near its southeastern border with the Russian Federation, planning to complete it within two years at the latest to prevent a potential breakthrough. Opposition parties have also introduceda bill in Tallinn calling for the immediate closure of that border.Poland has already closed its one, deploying over 40,000 soldiers on its eastern flank(10,000 of whom are provided by the rest of the Atlantic Alliance), welcoming part of the NATO contingent as part of Operation Eastern Sentinel.Warsaw and Bucharest are currently carefully considering the possibility of establishing a no-fly zone over the regions of Ukraine bordering Poland and Romaniato protect their airspace. They aim to neutralize any threats within Ukrainian airspace that are similar to or worse than those that have recently encroached upon their skies and resulted in crashes. Beyond this latest violation,the reason for such urgency is the joint exercise Zapad 2025(West 2025) involving the Russian and Belarusian armed forces, which also includes a 65-strong Indian contingent and several smaller delegations from China, Pakistan, and various African countries.
One only needs to examine the disposition of the troops and the placement of the launchers to see that these large-scale maneuvers are not just simple technical training exercises leading up to defensive drills, but ratherextensive preparation for offensive operations. The Russian Federation has gatheredarmored and motorized army corps near the Baltic states and Poland, establishinglogistics chains capable of withstanding possible preemptive strikes, rather than just conducting neutral exercises. Notably,the deployment of dual-use missile systems like the Iskander-M, which can launch either conventional or tactical nuclear warheads within a 500 km range, covers the entire Polish and Baltic regions, and even parts of central Germany.
During that exercise, Belarusian Chief of Staff Pavel Muravejko even boasted aboutdisplaying intermediate-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying strategic nuclear warheads, such as the Oreshnik (which was already launched on November 21st for experimental and intimidating purposes against the city of Dnipro). He explained thatdrones in various configurations were also actively used in those maneuvers.
At the same time,similar Russian attack drones struck the National University of Pharmacyin Kharkivs Slobidsky district yesterday in broad daylight. Others had preceded that brutal attack,destroying yet another point in the Epitsenter chain in Kyivovernight, bringing the total damage inflicted to that group to over a billion dollars.
What sets Zapad 2025 apart from earlier editions of such maneuvers is the theatricality of its political-military message. By showcasing even larger rather than hidden numbers and directly showing the international public how real those threats can be,Moscow aims to demonstrate its ability to turn these simulations into actual operations, still able to concentrate significant military power despite the war in Ukraine.
This perfectly exemplifies the well-known and frequently cited in our articles Russian practice ofmaskirovka, which is making something appear different from what it really is. Despite displaying their finest remaining silverware,Moscow and Minsk intentionally kept the number of troops in the exercise low to stay below the threshold set by the OSCE Vienna Documentregarding mutual trust and transparency among member states, knowing that going beyond that level would have triggered the mandatory presence of foreign inspectors.The Belarusian authorities ostentatiously invited American observers anyway, to farcely make it clear that there was nothing to hide in the exercise.
As the Ukrainian example demonstrates, however,when Moscow tries to draw international focus to one front, it is very likely they are quickly advancing on another.
This is a message NATO cannot afford to overlook.
Its clear that Zapad 2025 isnt just a normal training cycle. The real threat, however, isnt limited to the large-scale military drills that Moscow has slowed down, even partly, on the Ukrainian front. Instead, it lies inthe quiet preparations happening behind the scenes: integrating the Belarusian forces (and possibly the Indian ones, or smaller delegations from other countries) into the Russian command structure, testing logistics routes through the Suwalki Corridor, deploying electronic warfare and dual-use systems like those mentioned, and planning rapid, coordinated actions involving sabotage, cyberattacks, and energy blackmail.
To prevent a repeat of the Ukrainian crisis in the rest of Europe, we need to see beyond what Putin wants us to focus on.
北約開始挖戰壕，偽裝術於白俄羅斯粉墨登場
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
2025年9月17日
烏克蘭現場報道????????
帕夫洛格勒-愛沙尼亞正在其東南部與俄羅斯聯邦接壤的邊境附近挖掘一條近40公裏長的反坦克壕溝，計劃最遲在兩年內完成，以防止潛在的入侵行動。反對黨也已在塔林提出一項法案，呼籲立即關閉該邊境。波蘭已經關閉了其邊境，並在其東翼部署了超過4萬名士兵（其中1萬名由北約組織其他成員國派遣），歡迎部分北約特遣隊加入東方哨兵行動。華沙和布加勒斯特目前正在仔細考慮在烏克蘭與波蘭和羅馬尼亞接壤的地區設立禁飛區的可能性，以保護其領空。他們的目標是在烏克蘭領空內消除侵入（波蘭和羅馬尼亞）領空並導致墜機的威脅，類似或更嚴重於最近發生的2起。除了最新的違規行為外，如此緊迫的原因是俄羅斯和白俄羅斯武裝部隊的聯合軍事演習Zapad 2025，其中還包括一支65人的印度特遣隊和來自中國、巴基斯坦和非洲各個國家的小型代表團。
人們隻需要看看部隊的部署和發射器的位置，就會清楚這些大規模的調動不僅僅是旨在防禦演練的簡單技術訓練，而更是為進攻行動所做的大規模準備。俄羅斯聯邦已在波羅的海國家和波蘭附近集結了裝甲和機動軍團，建立了能夠承受可能的先發製人打擊的後勤鏈，而不僅僅是進行中立的演習。值得注意的是俄軍還部署了伊斯坎德爾-M等兩用導彈係統，該係統可以在500公裏範圍內發射常規或戰術核彈頭，覆蓋整個波蘭和波羅的海地區，甚至德國中部部分地區。
在演習期間，白俄羅斯參謀長Pavel Muravejko甚至吹噓展示了能夠攜帶戰略核彈頭的中程彈道導彈，包括於11月21日針對第聶伯羅市發射的用於實驗和威嚇的奧列什尼克。他解釋說，此次演習中還使用了各種配置的無人機。
與此同時，類似的俄羅斯攻擊無人機昨天在光天化日之下襲擊了哈爾科夫斯基斯洛比德斯基區的國立藥科大學。早於那次殘酷襲擊的其他襲擊一夜之間摧毀了基輔Epitsenter連鎖店的另一個分店，使該集團遭受的總損失超過10億美元。
（圖：Alla進入烏克蘭的一個蘇聯時代核設施，在地下一百多米處-版權所有照片Giorgio Provinciali）
Zapad 2025與之前此類演習的不同之處在於其政治-軍事信息的戲劇性。莫斯科通過展示更大數量的武器而非遮遮掩掩，並直接向國際社會展示這些威脅的真實性，旨在證明其有能力將這些模擬轉化為實際行動，盡管正在烏克蘭交戰，它仍然能夠集中大量的軍事力量。
這完美地體現了眾所周知的並且經常在我們的文章中被引用的俄羅斯的偽裝術，即讓某事物看起來與其實際情況不同。盡管展示了他們剩下的最好的銀器，但莫斯科和明斯克故意將演習中的部隊人數保持在低於歐洲安全與合作組織（OSCE）《維也納條約》設定的人限之下，該文件涉及各成員國之間的相互信任和透明度，因為他們知道超過該人限將引致外國檢查員的強製監察。白俄羅斯當局還是炫耀性地邀請了美國觀察員，以虛偽地表明演習中沒有什麽可隱瞞的。
（圖：歐洲領導人討論關於俄羅斯的戰略）
然而，正如烏克蘭的例子所表明的那樣，當莫斯科試圖將國際關注點吸引到一條戰線時，他們很可能正在迅速推進另一個戰線。
這是北約不能忽視的信息。
很明顯，Zapad 2025不僅僅是一個普通的訓練行動。其實，真正的威脅不局限於莫斯科在烏克蘭前線已經放緩，即使是部分放緩，的大規模軍事行動。相反，它在於幕後悄無聲息的準備：將白俄羅斯部隊（以及可能的印度部隊，或來自其他國家較小的軍團）整合到俄羅斯指揮結構中，測試通過蘇瓦基走廊的後勤路線，部署上述電子戰和雙用途係統，以及計劃涉及破壞、網絡攻擊和能源勒索的快速、協調的行動。
為了防止烏克蘭危機在歐洲其他地區重演，我們需要看穿普京想要我們關注的目標之外的東西。
（圖：我站在一個蘇聯時代導彈附近-版權所有照片Giorgio Provinciali）
