通貨膨脹打擊經濟，德國陷入衰退

通貨膨脹打擊經濟，德國陷入衰退

作者：Lucy Hooker，商業記者，BBC 新聞，2023 年 5 月 25 日

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65707206

 

升級的增長數據顯示，持續的通脹導致德國在今年前三個月陷入衰退。
分析人士稱，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後天然氣供應枯竭，歐洲最大經濟體也受到嚴重影響。

統計局稱，一月至三月經濟收縮了0.3%。

去年最後三個月收縮了 0.5%。

當一個國家的經濟連續兩個三個月或一個季度萎縮時，該國家就被視為陷入衰退。

DekaBank分析師安德烈亞斯·舍爾勒(Andreas Scheuerle)表示：“在巨大通脹的重壓下，德國消費者已經屈服，拖累了整個經濟。”

德國4月份通脹率為7.2%，高於歐元區平均水平，但低於英國的8.7%。

物價上漲拖累了家庭在食品、衣服和家具等方麵的支出。 工業訂單也疲軟，反映出能源價格上漲對企業的影響。

聯邦統計機構 Destatis 在一份聲明中表示：“今年年初，持續的高價格上漲仍然是德國經濟的負擔。”

最初，該機構預計今年第一季度增長為零，表明德國將避免陷入衰退。

然而，修正後的數據顯示家庭支出比上一季度下降了 1.2%。

政府支出下降了 4.9%，在政府削減對電動和混合動力汽車的補貼後，汽車銷量也下降。

鑒於德國嚴重依賴俄羅斯能源，經濟衰退沒有一些人預測的那麽嚴重。 暖冬和中國經濟的重新開放有助於緩解能源價格上漲的影響。

分析師表示，私營部門投資和出口有所增長，但這不足以讓德國擺脫經濟衰退的“危險區”。

LBBW 銀行分析師 Jens-Oliver Niklasch 表示：“早期指標表明，[2023 年]第二季度情況將繼續同樣疲軟。”

然而，德國央行（Bundesbank）預計4月至6月季度經濟將溫和增長，工業反彈抵消消費支出停滯。

國際貨幣基金組織預測，德國將成為世界發達經濟體中最弱的一個，今年將萎縮0.1%，此前它將英國的增長預測從-0.3%上調至0.4%。

Germany falls into recession as inflation hits economy

By Lucy Hooker, Business reporter, BBC News, 25 May, 2023

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65707206

 

Persistent inflation has helped push Germany into recession in the first three months of the year, an upgrade to growth data shows.

Europe's largest economy was also badly affected when Russian gas supplies dried up after the invasion of Ukraine, analysts said.

The economy contracted by 0.3% between January and March, the statistics office said.

That followed a 0.5% contraction in the last three months of last year.

A country is deemed to be in recession when its economy shrinks for two consecutive three-month periods, or quarters.

"Under the weight of immense inflation, the German consumer has fallen to his knees, dragging the entire economy down with him," said Andreas Scheuerle, an analyst at DekaBank.

 

Germany's inflation rate stood at 7.2% in April, above the euro area's average but below the UK's 8.7%.

Higher prices have weighed on household spending on things such as food, clothing and furniture. Industrial orders are also weaker, reflecting the impact of higher energy prices on businesses.

"The persistence of high price increases continued to be a burden on the German economy at the start of the year," the federal statistics agency Destatis said in a statement.

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Originally, the agency had estimated zero growth for the first quarter of this year, suggesting Germany would side-step a recession.

However, the revised figures showed household spending was 1.2% lower than in the previous quarter.

Government spending was 4.9% lower, and car sales also fell after government grants for electric and hybrid cars were scaled back.

 

The recession was less severe than some had predicted, given Germany's heavy reliance on Russian energy. A mild winter and the reopening of China's economy, helped ease the impact of higher energy prices.

Private sector investment and exports rose, but that was not enough to get Germany out of the "danger zone" for recession, analysts said.

"The early indicators suggest that things will continue to be similarly weak in the second quarter [of 2023]," said LBBW bank analyst Jens-Oliver Niklasch.

However, the German central bank, the Bundesbank, expects the economy to grow modestly in the April to June quarter, with a rebound in industry offsetting stagnating consumer spending.

The IMF has predicted that Germany will be the weakest of the world's advanced economies, shrinking 0.1% this year, after it upgraded its forecast for the UK from minus 0.3% to growth of 0.4%.