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罵罵英國的房價

(2014-05-31 01:47:40) 下一個

2014-05-30 Economist

 

房價:英國房市發展失衡

蔡波/人人網譯生譯世ECO精選翻譯

英國政府而不是銀行業應該為房產市場發展失衡負責

去 年英國房價上漲8%,目前更是幾乎恢複到經濟危機以前的兩位數水平。這一趨勢令很多人感到不安。現任卡梅倫聯合內閣商務、創新和技能大臣的溫斯·凱博稱房 價失控讓人“堪憂不已”。英國央行負責金融市場穩定的一名副行長康裏夫爵士則說目前房市“情況嚴峻不容忽視”。英國首相也表示房市過熱是其經濟回暖的最大 障礙。

由於不同地區房產市場特點不一,這使得調控難度更大。很多地方房價並未出現明顯上漲,甚至還持續低迷。蘇格蘭 和北愛爾蘭的房價在過去的一年增長不到1%,這意味著實際房價在下降。但是倫敦東南部地區的房產市場則顯著回暖,倫敦的房價過去一年漲幅高達17%。這無 疑給決策者們出了個難題:如何在保證南部房市持續升溫的同時也促進其他地區的房市回暖呢?

真正的問題不在於房價上漲 本身,而在於房價上漲背後的巨額貸款,畢竟房產隻是一種資產形式。隨著房價的快速上漲,民眾們為了買房而不得不借下高額貸款。目前平均貸款收入比率已經打 破2007年的峰值。這將嚴重製約經濟的發展。年利率也開始快速上升,因為隨著更多的收入被用於支付按揭貸款,人們的消費能力必然要下降。這無疑會影響企 業發展,進而威脅到工人就業。房貸壓力導致用於生產性投資的資金也更少,如今這不僅會減小GDP增長率,也影響著經濟的發展。

房 價的過快增長會產生兩個方麵的影響。其一,現金的大量流入。目前抵押貸款利率較低,銀行迫於將貸款放入房市。由於某些國家的政府對房產市場控製較嚴,因而 很多高級公寓遭到國外投資者的哄搶,這必然導致大量的熱錢流入。很多法國人在騎士橋置下房產,而俄羅斯投資者們在貝爾塔萊維亞區聯排別墅的投資也使其價格 一路飆升。

其二,房產市場供需的不平衡,這個問題也更加嚴峻。自2004年以來,英國的勞動力人口已增加近 400萬,而新增家庭數量則僅為180萬。盡管房價一路走高,但需求卻滯後。房產開發商們(貸款和勞動力價格都偏低)幻想著房市需求的大幅增長,但是 2012至2013年間新建房屋僅有13.5萬套,這是1969年以來的最低記錄,過去十年中英國的房產市場縮水了12%。

如何防止房產泡沫

英 格蘭銀行需要發揮應有的作用。英國財政大臣喬治·奧斯本正設法將抵押貸款補貼“幫助購房”計劃這一棘手問題轉移給英格蘭銀行總裁馬克·卡尼。馬克先生應該 暫停該計劃,並且還應該行使自己新的“宏觀審慎監管”權力,即對所有銀行進行“房價驟降35%”和失業率增加的“壓力測試”,這個措施很可能奏效,因為這 迫使那些不能應對這種劇烈變化的銀行籌集更多資金,這樣一來它們再也不敢隨便貸出抵押貸款。

隻要政府政策一出,很多英國銀行就會這樣做。卡尼先生可以采取新的新的措施以抑製國民過量貸款的問題,例如通過規定貸款價值比率或按揭貸款價值比率等貸款條件來限製家庭負債,這對貸款超額的倫敦的影響將最大。將個人所個稅轉移到房產稅上來講有利於減少外來現金的流入。

最 令人失望的莫過於政府了。政府之前曾口口聲聲表示會大力支持東南部地區的房產開發計劃,可是新建房屋數量仍然為數不多,這表明政府的成效甚微。卡梅隆首相 應該下令加快實施該計劃。賣掉未使用的政府土地將有利於房產開發商,他們可從中大大獲利。征收土地稅而不是房產稅會刺激投機性房產開發,以及促使市值較高 土地的所有者將其轉手或用來建房。那些喜歡優雅居住環境的保守黨們肯定不會讚成在倫敦周圍大量建房,但這顯然是防止房產市場持續過熱的最佳途徑。


House prices

A very British binge

The housing market is a huge problem in Britain. Blame the government, not the banks

May 24th 2014 | From the print edition

HAVING risen by 8% in the past year, British house prices are almost back to the double-digit pace that preceded the financial crisis. That parallel makes many anxious. Vince Cable, the business secretary, calls runaway house prices a “real, real, real worry”. Sir Jon Cunliffe, the central banker responsible for Britain’s financial stability, says housing is “too dangerous to ignore”. David Cameron, the prime minister, describes the rampant market as the biggest risk to Britain’s recovery.

The housing headache is made worse because different parts of the country are on completely different tracks. Much of Britain is calm, even tepid. In Scotland and Northern Ireland, house prices are up by less than 1% in a year, meaning real prices are going backwards. But the south-east is red hot: London is the core, with prices up 17% in a year. It gives policymakers a conundrum: can they tamp down the south without snuffing out the recovery elsewhere?

The big worry is not the house prices themselves: a house is an asset, after all. The problem is the debt that sits behind it. Britons are stretching to meet ever-rising prices by borrowing more. Average loan-to-income ratios have passed their 2007 peak. This threatens to throttle the economy. Interest-rate rises within a year are starting to look likely: with more pay devoted to mortgage repayments, consumption is bound to fall. That is bad news for firms, and, in turn, workers. A household-debt hangover also reduces the funds that could be channelled towards productive investment. This slows GDP now, and lowers potential too.


The boom runs on two types of fuel. The first is a rush of cash. Mortgage rates are low, and banks are keen to make loans on property. Money has also flooded in from abroad, as fancy flats are snapped up by foreigners whose governments are less friendly than Britain’s. French money underpins Knightsbridge; Belgravia-fancying Russians keep prices rising there.

The second problem is bigger: a long-standing mismatch between supply and demand. Since 2004 Britain’s working-age population has risen by nearly 4m, the number of homes by just 1.8m. New supply is stagnant despite high prices. Dream conditions for house-builders (debt is cheap, as are labourers) should be creating a building boom. Yet the puny 135,000 houses completed in 2012-13 was the lowest number since records began in 1969. In ten years the construction industry has shrunk by more than 12%.

Pre-emptive hangover cures

The Bank of England needs to toughen up. George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, has cannily lobbed the hot potato that is Help to Buy, a mortgage-subsidy scheme, to Mark Carney, the bank’s governor. Mr Carney should call time on it. And he should deploy his new “macroprudential” powers: the plan to “stress test” banks against a 35% house-price crash and a jump in unemployment is a good one. Lenders that cannot withstand this hypothetical shock will need to raise more capital, making them less eager to extend riskier housing loans.


Many British borrowers could do with a hard word from the governor, too. Mr Carney has new powers to stop Britons gorging on loans: debt blockers, such as loan-to-value or loan-to-income caps, would limit household leverage, and thus have most impact on over-borrowed London. Shifting the burden of tax from income to property would reduce the flood of foreign cash.

The biggest let-down has been the government. It has talked a good game about freeing up land for building in the south-east: weak construction figures show how little it has achieved. Mr Cameron should demand a faster planning process. Selling off unused government land would help builders and bring in revenue. Taxing land rather than buildings would encourage speculative construction and would push those sitting on large stocks to build or sell up. Building more around London will not be popular with shrub-loving Conservative voters, but it is the best way to stop another mortgage binge.

From the print edition: Leaders


今日第359-375個單詞

rampant

adj. 猖獗的;蔓延的;狂暴的;奔放的

tepid

adj. 微溫的,溫熱的;不太熱烈的;不熱情的

red hot

赤熱的,猛烈的

conundrum

n. 難題;謎語

throttle

vt. 壓製,扼殺;使……窒息;使……節流

snap up

搶購

puny

adj. 弱小的;微不足道的;微小的

exchequer

n. 財源;國庫;財政部

canny

adj. 精明的,謹慎的;節約的

lob

n. 高球;笨重的人

vt. 把球挑高;打緩慢的球

vi. 蹣跚地走

macroprudential

宏觀審慎

gorge on

貪婪地吃,飽吃

loan-to-value 貸款價值比率

loan-to-income 貸款收入比率

let-down 讓人失望的人或事

shrub 灌木叢

binge

n. 狂歡,狂鬧;放縱


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