穀歌是不是已經夕陽西下了？

穀歌是不是已經夕陽西下了？

 

這段時間，和直上雲霄的百度股價相比，是穀歌股價的喋喋不休。

穀歌到底怎麽哪？難道中國之戰的敗北，就成為穀歌的滑鐵盧不成？不是說，在美國和歐洲這些主戰場一直戰無不勝的穀歌，怎麽又突然爆出了主陣地被“小字輩”雅虎奪走和鯨吞的消息了？

這年頭，看來穀歌同誌是壞消息連連。如果當初你相信華爾街大鱷的建議，在620美元的時候買穀歌，同時在那個價位賣空當時股價為420美元（相當於現在分股之後的42美元）的百度，那麽，今天在你看到百度75美元有餘（相當於分股前的750多美元）和505美元的百度，就隻有流淚的份了。

再者，即使在今天，標準普還是在強力推薦（五星）穀歌，勉強推薦（三星）百度。這種推薦和股市股價走向的不一致性，對於投資者的你，又應該怎麽樣理解呢？標準普是不是一個草包？

我覺得不是。標準普是在按照價值投資理念進行推薦，基於的主要還是基礎分析方法。而基礎分析看重的是長期的前景，並且是基於當前的市場預期來進行的。而當前的市場預期又是基於已經獲得的信息進行的。當這些前提條件發生變化的時候，你也得自己及時調整自己的投資布局。

這樣一來，就有可能出現一個問題：市場預期的偏高和偏低。看來，市場對於百度的估計有點偏低，對於穀歌的有點偏高。

一直看好，或者說自己一直以為自己能夠做好，的手機這一塊，似乎也不是很理想，想撼動蘋果公司的結果，看來也是铩羽而歸。穀歌低估了中國政府的力量，在中國的抗衡看來是螳臂當車，自不量力。對於蘋果，以為是下一個雅虎。當初，這位來自俄國的家夥看到“來自”中國的雅虎好欺負之後，誤解了中國人的不“一樣性”。在欺負雅虎得逞，欺負微軟也戰績累累之後，才發現自己做了一個“天下無對手”的誤判。

在商業市場，看來還是謙虛一點為好，否則，幾年之後的穀歌，很可能就是下一個王安公司，那樣可就慘了。

 

更多介紹和分析，參閱我的新浪博客：http://www.blog.sina.com.cn/wangxiangusa

 

附錄：Yahoo Gains Search Share But Data Clouded By Changes

12:58 PM ET 5/11/10 | Dow Jones

By Scott Morrison

SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones)--Yahoo Inc.'s (YHOO) search market share rose for the second straight month, but analysts were quick to caution the Internet company's gains were clouded by new features recently introduced on its Web pages.

Yahoo, which has struggled to halt a long decline in U.S. search share, saw its share jump to 17.7% in April from 16.9% the previous month, according research group comScore. Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) Bing inched up to 11.8% from 11.7%, while Google Inc.'s (GOOG) U.S. search share slipped to 64.4% from 65.1% in March.

Barclays Capital analyst Doug Anmuth cautioned against reading too much into the results because they were based on "very cloudy data" stemming from changes introduced at Yahoo.

The addition of Yahoo News slideshows, which are counted as search queries, contributed about 158 million incremental searches in April over March. Changes to Yahoo Finance, which enabled comScore to track additional search activity, boosted queries by 50 million over the previous month.

"We believe these newer queries are generally of lower overall quality than traditional queries in search boxes or within toolbars and likely have different user intent," said Anmuth in a note.

Yahoo executives last month predicted the company's search share would "trend up" during the second quarter, ending a sharp slide that began early last year. But analysts noted that after backing out Yahoo's changes, the company's search share was largely unchanged from the previous month.

"We think most investors will look through the reported number and conclude that YHOO's is probably just maintaining share of what really counts: monetizable searches," wrote Broadpoint Amtech Analyst Ben Schachter in a note.

Yahoo is working to implement a 10-year pact under which Microsoft's Bing will power searches on Yahoo's Web properties. The revenue-sharing partnership is aimed at challenging Google's dominance of the online-search market.

Yahoo's search share first showed signs of stabilizing in March when it rose to 16.9% from 16.8% in February, the first increase since Microsoft launched its revamped Bing search engine last year. The two companies' combined share in the search market has remained relatively stable since Bing's launch, while Google's share has remained at or near 65%.

Shares in Yahoo were up 0.6% at $16.43 in midday trading.

-By Scott Morrison; Dow Jones Newswires; 415-765-6118; [e-mail]

附錄：Sprint opts out of Google's Nexus One

5:48 PM ET 5/10/10 | Marketwatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Sprint Nextel Corp. has decided not to sell Google Inc.'s flagship Nexus One mobile phone, becoming the second U.S. carrier to opt out of the highly touted device in recent weeks.

Sprint (S) had announced in March that it planned to make the Nexus One available for use on its network, touting it as "a powerful device that belongs on a powerful network."

However, on Monday Sprint spokeswoman Michelle Leff Mermelstein said that, "We have made the decision to not take Nexus One into our lineup."

Google's (GOOG) model for its Android mobile operating system is based on having a vast range of devices running on the software.

However, the release of the Nexus One in January was a highly publicized event, as the sleek device was widely seen as a potential rival to Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) popular iPhone, which is available exclusively in the U.S. on the network of AT&T Inc. (T)

Sprint's Leff Mermelstein said that instead of the Nexus One, the network has now opted to include the Android-based HTC Evo 4G, from Nexus One-maker HTC Corp. (HTCC.Y)

The spokeswoman called the Evo 4G "a multimedia powerhouse."

Google had originally been expected to make the Nexus One available on a number of different networks, including T-Mobile, Verizon Wireless (VZ) and Sprint.

However, Google disclosed last month that the Nexus One would not become available on Verizon, instead promoting the use of the Android-based Incredible for use on the U.S.'s most popular network. < Nexus the and Verizon about story related See LOCATION="INTERNAL" URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nexus-one-wont-be-out-on-verizon-google-says-2010-04-26">

The Nexus One Web site currently only promotes the use of phone on T-Mobile's network.

A Google spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.