汪翔
隨便想想
買穀歌的時機到了嗎？
穀歌威脅中國政府，說是要關閉自己在中國的所有業務。中國政府會害怕嗎？我看不太會。在麵子上，中國政府還是會給出很多理由來“留住”穀歌，但是，在實際立場上，我不覺得中國政府會為了一個穀歌而在信息管製方麵做出很大的讓步。
不過很有意思，穀歌做出威脅的主要理由是：自己受到來自中國方麵的“網絡攻擊”。我不是很明白，如果將服務器搬出中國境內，就可以避免這種攻擊？再者，遭受對方攻擊，對於穀歌來說也不應該是一件壞事，它不應該那麽脆弱吧。如果不能夠借機打造自己更為強大的防禦係統，那麽，它今後的日子又能夠怎麽過呢？
穀歌說，中國對於自己來說，在利潤上的影響有限，所以，對於中國這個不怎麽賺錢的地方，也沒有必要去招惹那麽多的麻煩。這種解釋似乎是太“近視”了一點。目前狀況下，對於任何人，忽視中國市場的潛力，似乎都不是很明智的選擇。
我注意到，在這個消息出來之後，百度的股價大漲，一度在幾天之內從380美元附近逼近445美元附近，而穀歌則從最近的630附近下跌到580以下。而且，標準普還將百度的推薦級別一下子從“強烈賣出”的一個星提升到“持有”的三個星。盡管百度在不久前曾經說過，第四季度的盈利可能沒有預期的那麽理想。也可能正是這種預期，人們在大力打壓百度的股價。
這樣一來，我的那個玩百度的玩法也就大賺了。保守的人，明天就可以繼續睡大覺，自動全部清倉了。
在這個特殊時刻，是不是該在高位拋掉百度，低位累積穀歌呢？大家好好想想，可能機會難得。適度買進穀歌是不是已經到時間了？
下麵是幾則關於穀歌的評價消息，大家看看，有些不必太在意。嚇唬人的消息出現時，正是建倉的好時機，那時候，大家都害怕，而你則不能夠害怕。
附錄：
Google Exiting China Could Hurt Android Adoption In Region
7:38 AM ET 1/14/10 | Dow Jones
By Roger Cheng
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Google Inc.'s (GOOG) mobile aspirations in China, including the adoption of its Android mobile operating system, could hit a snag if the Internet giant decides to pull out of the country.
Google's push to get into the smartphone business was driven by its desire to take the lion's share of future mobile advertising revenue. But if the company pulls out of China, it could dampen interest in Android and hurt its position in the nascent but rapidly growing market just as other smartphone players step up their game.
The problem could "potentially be huge," said Kevin Burden, analyst at ABI Research. For example, the largest wireless carrier in China, China Mobile Ltd. (CHL), has roughly 500 million subscribers.
Some--but not all--of the Android phones could be affected. Google has pushed forward two lines of smartphones: devices that feature the latest Google software and programs; and phones that run on customized software developed by the handset partner.
The Nexus One, for instance, has Google's fingerprints all over it. As does Motorola Inc.'s (MOT) Droid. Both devices carry a "with Google" tagline printed on the back.
These devices may get the cold treatment in China if Google decides to pull out. The devices put their ties into services such as Gmail and Google Voice at the forefront of their features, so the loss of Google's support would be even more glaring.
Other Android devices, though, may not be affected. Devices like Motorola's Cliq or HTC Corp.'s (2498.TW) Hero or Droid Eris have a second layer of software running on top of Android that changes the way the phones look and feel. The devices aren't as reliant on Google programs, and they could still sell well in China.
"I think they will be treated totally different," said Ken Dulaney, analyst at research firm Gartner Inc. "The operating system is more of an ingredient than a finished product." Dulaney noted that the Android software is managed by the Open Handset Alliance, and not Google, despite the company's overarching influence.
While Google may be able to pull out of China, other companies don't have that luxury. Motorola, which has struggled to regain its footing after a long gap between hit phones, sees China as one of the strongest sources of future growth.
"China is a critical market for Motorola, and we are committed to providing the most innovative products and services, as we have in China for the last 22 years," said Motorola spokeswoman Jennifer Erickson.
An HTC spokesman said the company wasn't in a position to comment.
China-based Lenovo Group Ltd. (LNVGY), meanwhile, unveiled a number of Android-powered devices, including a smartphone, at last week's Consumer Electronics Show. And Dell Inc. (DELL) launched its Mini 3 smartphone in China in November.
It remains unclear, however, whether Chinese consumers will be willing to buy a device that lacks critical Google features, even if the handset maker adds other bells and whistles. In addition, there is heightened competition with the Apple Inc. (AAPL) iPhone now available in the country, and Research in Motion Ltd.'s (RIMM) Blackberry, slated to hit China in the third quarter.
Many Chinese consumers are willing to pay the extra money for a device with all its features. They may not be so willing to buy a device that's crippled in one way or the other, Burden said.
Android also has made an appearance on netbooks and smartbooks, devices that fall in between laptops and smartphones. Manufacturers can take more liberties with the hardware to distance the product from Google, and analysts feel there is less of a threat to those devices. But if there is a backlash against Google products, the companies will opt to use Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) Windows software, or an alternative Linux platform.
"It's too important for the manufacturers to ignore the Chinese market," Burden said.
Google's China Threat Carries Long-Term Risks To Company
7:39 AM ET 1/14/10 | Dow Jones
By Scott Morrison
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones)--Google Inc.'s (GOOG) threat to pull out of China over security and censorship issues risks little in the short term, but the online search giant could find itself at a long-term disadvantage in a rapidly growing Internet market--already the world's largest.
Among long-term goals being risked, should Google decide to exit China, would be potential search-advertising revenue, the company's ability to push its Android software in one of the world's top mobile markets, and convincing manufacturers to adopt its yet-to-be-released Chrome computer operating system.
Financial analysts were mixed on whether Google would actually follow through on its threat to exit China. Some calculated it was a 50-50 proposition, while others said the company's very public showing made it all but assured it would back away.
"One does not make such a public announcement if it only intends to review its options," Broadpoint AmTech analyst Ben Schachter said.
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster estimated that revenue from China could reach about $310 million, or about 2% of Google's total revenue, in 2010.
A Google spokesman declined to comment, other than to say the company's revenue from China is "extremely immaterial" at this point. He added that much of the company's revenue derived from Chinese advertisers was spent on Google properties outside China.
Of more consequence are the company's long-term goals. With an estimated 360 million Internet users and about 700 million mobile phone users, China has been widely seen as a market Google cannot ignore. Pulling out now will sorely diminish the likelihood that Google will ever be able to catch up to search competitors should it decide to re-enter the Chinese market, Pali Capital analyst Tian Hou said.
"They are losing half the world," she said. "Google is part of our lives now, but they haven't become part of people's lives in China."
Another concern is how a Google exit might impact its budding Android mobile operating system franchise and the adoption of its soon-to-be-released Chrome computer operating system, which the search giant believes will drive more people to use the Internet--and enable it to sell more advertising to consumers.
Some analysts said Chinese authorities might resort to pressuring such manufacturers as Lenovo Group Ltd. (0992.HK), HTC Corp. (2498.TW) and Motorola Inc. (MOT), to stop making and or selling devices that feature Google's operating software platforms. The problem could "potentially be huge," said Kevin Burden, analyst at ABI Research.
"It is likely that China and its manufacturers would have some passionate conversations about what advantages they get by using Google software," Gartner analyst Whit Andrews said.
A Google spokesperson declined to speculate on whether the Chinese government might pressure other companies to stop using Google software.
On the other hand, Gartner's Andrews said China is not a foundation for global media power, and Google will be able to thrive in other markets even if it remains absent in China.
"Google doesn't need China to be successful," he said.
JMP Securities analyst Sameet Sinha said Google has not been making much headway in China, adding that the company's opportunities continue to expand in online advertising and mobile, which would allow it to offset any lost revenue from China.
The company also stands to benefit by taking a strong stance to protect its users' personal information or privacy data, Collins Stewart analyst Sandeep Aggarwal said.
"The cyberattack in China is not a local issue but can risk Google's global franchise and business model, which is built on trust," he wrote.
China-Based US Firms Worried Over Security After Google Attack
4:11 AM ET 1/14/10 | Dow Jones | |||
While not mentioning Google by name, the American Chamber of Commerce in China, or AmCham, said preliminary survey results showed "members ... are concerned about the security of commercial correspondence, data and networks."
Yet, the U.S. companies surveyed by AmCham said they remained "optimistic about the prospects for China over both the medium- and long-term," AmCham said in a statement.
The statement didn't say when the business climate survey was conducted.
Google vowed Tuesday to stop bowing to Chinese Internet censors and risk banishment from the lucrative market, in protest against "highly sophisticated" cyberattacks aimed at Chinese human rights activists.
The China-based hackers struck Google and reportedly more than 30 other firms in an apparent bid for computer source codes, intellectual property, and information about human rights activists around the world.
AmCham said the "free flow of information, protection of intellectual property rights and uniform application of the law facilitates commercial activity for both Chinese and foreign companies."
The group encouraged "all parties, including the U.S. and Chinese governments, to work toward these objectives."
