114億人民幣的損失該怪誰

114億人民幣的損失該怪誰           

金融危機中，中國國有金融機構通過投機金融衍生品，虧損高達114億元人民幣（實際結果可能更高），中國政府指責美國的金融機構搞欺騙，給中國金融機構設陷阱。

            這種指責很有意思，也很滑稽。

這年頭，我不知道哪家金融公司靠搞“慈善”事業得以發家成長，而能夠成為巨人的。金融市場就是一種博弈和格鬥的戰場。誰能夠不流血和少流血，誰就是英雄，那裏不是弱者和小孩子玩過家家的地方。

在剛剛完成的長達三十萬字的《格林伯格傳：金融航母的締造者》（名字最後可能會變）裏，我很無情地深入分析和解讀了，格林伯格所領導的美國國際集團，當初是在如何玩弄中國的。讀起來可能會讓一些人覺得，我太小看中國人的智慧了。那麽，結合一下這個114億元的虧損，再結合一下我在《博弈時代》裏麵分析的很多中國金融機構所做的“難以理解”的行為和它們的結果，可能就會有人不得不同意我的看法了。 

我寫傳記，從來就不太在乎“傳主”怎麽想和怎麽解釋他自己的行為。

所以，對於人們問我“有沒有采訪過本人”的問題，我一直不屑一顧。我寫的是評傳，是基於自己的理解所獲得的解讀。

我在解讀傳主行為的理性和合理性，站在他自己的立場。這可能就是我寫的傳記的與眾不同之處吧。在寫作《格林伯格傳》時，好幾次都有衝動和格林伯格聯係一下，獲得一點“內部”消息。但是，最後還是覺得沒有必要。我的書是寫給中國人看的，是為中國人提個醒，讓大家別睡得太深沉。

我的很多分析和解讀，不可能會讓這些美國佬開心和高興。因為，我說了太多的實話，雖然很多聽起來讓自己覺得中國人很低智商。我希望這不是事實，但是，我又不得不強迫自己承認，那就是事實。可悲！ 

在金融市場，我一直覺得，中國的金融機構就像是一個貪婪的三歲小童。

幼稚和功夫不到，結果肯定是讓自己吃虧。

而貪婪和不知天高地厚，則讓這種幼稚給對手提供了更多的機會來宰割你。

如果你實在是不明白這個無情的事實，讀讀我的《博弈時代》吧，雖然不知道哪一天它才能夠出版，雖然不知道有哪些內容最後能夠真正讓讀者讀到。至少我很早就交稿了，而且，我也覺得自己的解讀很真實和獨到。 

這個世界不相信眼淚，也不在乎流血！

如果你還有膽量，站起來，舔幹身上的鮮血，戰鬥吧！中國。

你沒有第二條選擇之路。

你的智慧才是你真正的最好夥伴。 

【附錄】Chinese official raps foreign banks on derivatives

December 4, 2009 

BEIJING (AP) - A senior Chinese official criticized foreign banks for selling derivatives with "fraudulent characteristics" that led to heavy losses for state-owned airlines and other companies.

"Some international investment banks are the biggest villains," said Li Wei, deputy chairman of the agency that oversees China's biggest state companies, in a newspaper published by the school of the Communist Party's Central Committee.

The commentary in this week's edition of the Study Times was the Chinese government's most pointed public criticism yet of foreign financial institutions. Li's agency said in September it would support companies that want to challenge the contracts in court.

Li made no specific accusations against individual banks. But he noted that airlines and shipping companies suffered huge losses on fuel contracts bought from Goldman Sachs Group, Merrill Lynch — now a unit of Bank of America Corp. — and Morgan Stanley, while banks bought derivatives from Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup.

He said Chinese companies were to blame for most of their losses but complained that derivatives tied to oil prices and other commodities or investments were too complex and made potential risks too hard to identify.

"Of course, first of all we need to find problems in the companies themselves," Li wrote in the front-page commentary. "But it also is largely related to international investment banks maliciously peddling high-leverage, complex products with fraudulent characteristics."

Some 68 of the 136 major banks, airlines and other companies directly controlled by the Cabinet invested in derivatives and recorded book losses totaling 11.4 billion yuan ($1.7 billion) by the end of October 2008, according to Li.

Spokespeople in China for Goldman, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch declined to comment.

Li's agency, the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, oversees 136 major banks, insurers, phone carriers and other companies including China Telecom Ltd., Bank of China Ltd. and China National Petroleum Corp.

Li said Chinese companies still should use derivatives but should comply with regulations and shouldn't "give up eating for fear of choking".