BESTBUY 給出的信號

BESTBUY 給出的信號

      華爾街睜著大大的眼睛，等待著BestBuy給出的數據。          

美國經濟複蘇，零售業的複蘇很關鍵。

BBY給出的數據有喜有憂。

喜的是，公司的盈利增長不錯。而且，賣出的禮券數額不低，這些都是為了必然要實現的銷售額。

憂的是，銷售業績的增長主要來自毛利率比較低的電腦和電視等電器產品的銷售。是靠大幅壓價獲得的業績。這說明，美國消費者真的是開始節儉持家了。

問題是，在這些低價位的電器領域，還有沃爾瑪和那個大名鼎鼎的亞馬遜網站在那裏競爭。BBY顯然不是他們的對手。

如果大家看看華爾街給亞馬遜的市盈率，再比較一下其他零售企業和網上零售網站所能夠獲得的，就知道什麽叫做厚愛了。

BBY業績不錯，公司也增加了自己對未來年度的盈利預估，從2.7-3.0美元到3.00-3.15美元。而且，公司在中國等海外市場的擴展順利。在這種背景下，華爾街還是給它一個股價下降8%的下馬威。

現在是不是一個建倉的好時刻？仁者見仁，智者見智。

【附錄】Best Buy's shares drop as sales come at a price

 12/15/09 

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Boosted by U.S. holiday shoppers buying items from laptop computers to so-called smart phones, Best Buy Co. said Tuesday its third-quarter profit more than quadrupled as the retailer raised its forecast for the full fiscal year.

However, the stronger demand came at a price. Shares of the largest U.S. electronics chain (BBY) saw their biggest decline in more than a year, trading down 8.2% in late morning trading, as the company said strong sales of less profitable laptop computers and lower-priced flat-panel televisions are expected to lead to lower-than-expected fourth-quarter gross margin, a measure of profit that tracks percentage of sales left after minus the cost of goods sold.

Against the deflation in products such as notebook computers, which have become an increasing portion of Best Buy's sales, analysts said the margin forecast also signaled a competitive holiday season as Best Buy faced intense pressure to lower prices, pressuring its margins.

Retailers including discount giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), online heavyweight Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) and wholesale club bellwether Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) all are seeking deeper inroads in electronics, overshadowing Best Buy's market share gain from the demise of its former rival Circuit City, analysts said.

"Sales are decent, but it's coming at a cost," said Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Brian Nagel in an interview. Competitive pressure "is more intense. With (product) prices coming down, they are at a place where Wal-Mart can get more aggressive. Wal-Mart is better at selling a $500 TV than a $2,000 TV."

There was one bright spot. Chief Executive Brian Dunn said on a conference call that gift card sales were up 40% n November and about doubled on the Thanksgiving weekend on Friday and Saturday, which Nagel said may bode well for sales in January.

Third-quarter net income increased to $227 million, or 53 cents a share, from $52 million, or 13 cents, in the same period a year earlier, when it had a 22-cent charge, the Minneapolis-based company said.

Sales in the latest quarter rose 5% to $12.02 billion from $11.5 billion, helped by the addition of 127 net new stores in the past 12 months. Sales at locations open at least 14 months, a key industry-performance benchmark, rose 1.7%.

They gained 4.6% in the U.S. as both traffic and the amount shoppers spent per transaction improved. Comparable sales outside of the U.S. dropped 6.7%, missing estimates of analysts such as J.P. Morgan's Christopher Horvers, who also estimating a decline of 4.4%.

Analysts, on average, had estimated that Best Buy would earn 43 cents a share on sales of $12 billion, according to forecasts compiled by FactSet Research.

Best Buy raised its full-year profit forecast, excluding special items, to $3 to $3.15 a share. It had projected $2.70 to $3 a share previously.

Management sees revenue of $49 billion to $49.5 billion for the year, driven in part by sales of notebook computers and lower-priced flat panel TVs. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected full-year profit of $2.95 a share on sales of $48.4 billion.

Holiday bright spot

Third-quarter gross margin narrowed to 24.5% from 24.9%, hurt by higher sales of less profitable notebook computers. Fourth-quarter margin is expected to be down 0.8 percentage point to 1 percentage point, Best Buy executives said on the call.

"This fuels concerns on the commoditization of the product cycle and that the bankruptcy of (Circuit City) is not relieving the competitive environment with Walmart and Amazon continuing to push into the space," J.P. Morgan's Horvers said.

Consumer electronics has been a top-performing category this holiday season. The Commerce Department's better-than-expected November sales data showed demand in electronics and appliances category was up nearly 3%, outpacing sales of general merchandise.

Demand at Best Buy also has been helped by the Microsoft Corp.'s October release of Windows 7 and Activision's new Call of Duty video game that helped to drive traffic earlier to stores, Best Buy said.

Total sales in the U.S. rose 9% to $8.9 billion, helped also by sales of appliances while games, movies and music sales were down. The company said sales improved sequentially each month, ending with an 8.4% gain in comparable-store sales in November as sales rose at a rate in the low double digits on Friday and Saturday of Thanksgiving holiday weekend. U.S. online sales rose more than 20%, boosted by both higher traffic and average ticket transaction.

To spur holiday sales, Best Buy has launched a "Buyer Be Happy" holiday campaign, a Twelpforce service account on Twitter.com that allows its employees to answer consumer questions. The company also has re-launched its Facebook page that added gift finder and catalog functions to engage shoppers.

Best Buy estimated it gained 2.3 percentage points in terms of market share in the three months ended Oct. 31.

The company also is focusing more on its top spenders through its Reward Zone program, offering them exclusive shopping and access to special events such as staging showings for the vampire movie "New Moon."

International sales fell 6% to $3.1 billion, hurt by declines in Canada and Best Buy Europe, a venture with the Carphone Warehouse . Best Buy said its international chief Bob Willett is retiring.

Best Buy is opening large-format stores in China and Canada and has signed leases for sites in the U.K. The company also has struck a deal with Vodafone Group (VOD) to make it the only mobile-phone retailer in the U.K. to offer all major carriers.

"Best Buy is still very much in a market share grabbing mode" overseas, Nagel said.