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)
俄烏戰爭的預言家 最近有幾位西方學者因為成功預測俄烏戰爭而聲譽鵲起,Peter Zeihan就是其中之一。在2014年出版的《The Accidental Super Power》一書中,他判斷俄羅斯持續衰落無可挽回,在喪失攻擊能力之前對外發動侵略有極大可能,其有所作為的窗口期隻有最後8年,而俄羅斯攻擊的第一目標就是烏克蘭。俄烏戰爭果然在本書出版的8年後爆發,這個預言可謂精準。 他做出這個精準預測,不是靠滲透俄國高層政治或者洞悉普京思想,而是靠地緣政治學(geopolitics)和人口統計學(demographics)這兩項工具。 昔有趙普半部《論語》治天下,現在作者鼓吹說靠著地緣政治學和人口統計學這兩項工具,就可以通曉世界未來趨勢。這本書就是作者關於未來世界大勢的預言。 地緣政治學是一門曆史悠久的古老學科。特別是在19世紀和20世紀初的那段時間,是歐洲大國博弈的主要工具。英國和俄國在中亞的大博弈(The Great Game),就是地緣政治學的踐行代表。但在二戰之後,特別是冷戰之後,地緣政治學已經被大多數歐美精英所遺忘。他們過慣了在以美國為主導的國際體係下的好日子,世界似乎不需要地緣政治了,隻需要自由貿易和市場經濟,就人類大同。 結果俄羅斯在2014年悍然出兵收回克裏米亞,歐美一眾領導人無不目瞪口呆,手足無措,從夢中驚醒。當然很多人又重新睡回去,直到2022年,又一次友邦驚詫。 這個世界,怎麽又回到了19世紀的遊戲規則? 作者在書中警告我們:全球化已經結束!全球市場、資本流動、自由貿易、航行自由、全球供應鏈,這些我們習以為常的東西,正在或者已經失效!世界將重新回到地緣政治學的遊戲規則。 美國在二戰之後,通過建立布雷頓森林體係,構建了我們今天所熟悉的全球化。 在冷戰時期,全球化局限於西方陣營。冷戰之後,全球化第一次擴展到全世界(包括中國和前蘇東國家)。 美國主導的全球化,是以美元為後盾,美國市場為主要舞台並讓利給其它國家,由美國海軍為全球供應鏈保駕護航,這樣全球所有國家能夠在完全不考慮地緣政治的條件下,以極低的安全成本極低的供應鏈成本自由地發展經濟。 地緣政治這個猛獸,被美國人的全球化給暫時鎖住了。因為世界隻有一極,全球化體係隻有一個,而地緣政治是多極下的產物。 在過去70多年的時間裏,特別是過去30年,可以說是人類曆史上最好的年代。經濟迅猛發展,世界相對和平。 但要維持這個全球化體係,美國需要不斷出血讓利並付出高額成本。 隨著美國國力的衰弱,已經力不從心。美國民眾也越來越對他們為全球化的犧牲而感到不滿。中國的崛起,更是對美國主導的全球化形成了挑戰。 美國人正在試圖從自己主導的全球化中脫身後退。鼓吹美國重回孤立的人不少。很多美國人有“山巔之城”的執念。 這就導致一個後果,當美國撤退之後,失去了美國這一極獨大,地緣政治的猛獸將被釋放出來,重新困擾世界上大多數國家。 正是從地緣政治學的角度,作者分析得出俄羅斯必然也必須吞並烏克蘭的結論。 |