兩件國際大事,上周悄悄發生:俄羅斯總統普亭、土耳其總統厄多安前往德黑蘭,與伊朗總統萊希共同舉行阿斯坦納進程三邊首腦會議,同時在土耳其與聯合國見證之下,俄羅斯與烏克蘭達成糧食出口協議。 ![美歐的棄子,無所適從的土耳其,試圖左右逢源卻最終滿盤皆輸_網易訂閱](data:image/jpeg;base64,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)
如何解釋這兩件國際事件?部分網民稱,這是俄羅斯正推動建立「反西方聯盟」,但實際上,三方更傾向於各取所需的現實主義外交,其中又以土耳其的外交手腕最巧妙,玩弄俄羅斯、伊朗與西方的矛盾,達到自己最大的利益。 2011年敘利亞內戰之初,土耳其的立場其實與西方接近,甚至曾充當美國扶植敘利亞反對派武裝的訓練基地與跳板,2015年11月土耳其在土敘邊境擊落援助敘利亞的俄羅斯戰機,俄土關係跌至冰點。 但是在敘利亞內戰中,美國為了打擊阿塞德政權,積極武裝並訓練一股庫德武裝勢力,讓他們活躍在與土耳其交界地區活動,這不是反對庫德建國的土耳其所樂見的,認為有違自身的安全利益,總統厄多安耿耿於懷,於是開始尋求與其他地區強權的合作。 ![解析庫德族各派係武裝分佈圖- 軍事- 中時新聞網](https://images.chinatimes.com/newsphoto/2016-09-01/656/20160901004855.jpg)
阿斯坦納進程是2017年1月由俄羅斯、土耳其、伊朗三國共同在哈薩克首都阿斯坦納發起而得名,目的在推動敘利亞境內實現停火,尋求政治解決。相對美國雖仍有特種部隊與反阿塞德政府的遊擊隊並肩作戰,但在川普撤離大部分後,就已經失去影響力,反之,「俄土伊聯盟」迄今已舉行了7次峰會,被視為決定敘利亞局勢的重要力量。 更況且,兩個受到西方經濟製裁的國家:伊朗與俄羅斯,都期待能夠攜手土耳其,打破製裁限製,最具體形象的是,19日高峰會前,土耳其總統厄多安,足足讓普亭等待1分多鐘,替之前普亭讓他等兩分多鐘報了仇。 ![熱點分析17:阿斯塔納進程](https://cdn.trt.net.tr/images/xlarge/rectangle/5f9b/4c61/6d0c/61c2f963c36b6.jpg?time=1657605130)
三國峰會後呼籲,美軍必須從東敘利亞撤退,同時俄羅斯與伊朗也默許土耳其砲轟與敘利亞的邊境,事實上俄羅斯不默許也不行,因為大部分軍力已被抽調往烏克蘭戰場。土耳其未來還計畫發起軍事行動,目標是在邊境地區建立一個縱深30公裏的緩衝區,以遏製庫德分離主義,現在看起來俄羅斯和伊朗,都無力阻擋,眼睜睜的看厄多安得逞。 如果說三國高峰會的結果,滿足了土耳其的國家利益,在阿斯坦納進程峰會的同一時間,7月13日,由俄羅斯、烏克蘭、土耳其和聯合國的代表在土耳其伊斯坦堡舉行最後一輪的四方會談,就是基於全球公益,商討如何開闢黑海糧食出口走廊。 ![俄烏戰爭推高全球食品價格到底有多少糧食被困在烏克蘭? - BBC News 中文](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/1103E/production/_126049696_4b98fe71-1979-4467-a800-604d49dec445.jpg)
從俄烏戰爭爆發以來,土耳其多次表明自己願為俄烏衝突的調解人,實際上,俄烏雙方也把土耳其當作會談的平臺,再加上土耳其控製了進出黑海的海峽咽喉要道,所以糧食出口協議在土耳其談,也是合情合理的。 經過持續多月的談判,22日在伊斯坦堡,俄烏兩國在土耳其與聯合國的見證之下,正式簽署糧食出口協定。根據該協定,烏克蘭將通過黑海的3個主要港口,經由海運出口糧食,同時也允許俄羅斯穀物和化肥運出。 俄羅斯、烏克蘭、土耳其和聯合國將在伊斯坦堡成立聯合協調中心,船隻的糧食裝卸,查驗返航船隻上是否載運武器、開闢沒有水雷的航運路線等,都將由協調中心共同監督。 土耳其雖然是北約的一員,可是卻是唯一沒有參加對俄羅斯製裁的,這好有一比:「厄多安在北約,就像是曼欽參議員在美國參議院」,雖然是自己人,卻處處找麻煩。 ![埃爾多安要求美國解除購武限製換取芬蘭瑞典入北約| 星島日報](https://media-proc.singtaousa.com/photo.php?s=https://media.singtaousa.com/wp-content/uploads/master/2022/05/2022051816442788549.jpg&f=jpeg&w=815&q=75)
近日芬蘭、瑞典兩國要加入北約,土耳其卻以兩國庇護庫德恐怖組織為由,堅決反對,雖然美國與北約對其非常不以為然,但私下卻不斷妥協,最後一刻土耳其勉強同意,但拜登為了要討好他,不惜解凍對土耳其的武器出口限製,同意向土耳其出售40架升級後的F-16戰機,作為土耳其因購買俄國的S-400防空飛彈,而被排除在F-35戰鬥機計畫之外的補償。 現在看起來,在國際政治的夾縫中,土耳其是大贏家;厄多安可以與美國的宿敵俄羅斯與伊朗打交道,又可以幫聯合國談判運糧協議,造福非洲與中東鬧糧荒的國家,甚至連北約都不得不對他低聲下氣。由此可知,國際政治不盡然都是大國稱霸、小國受氣,有時隻要把握住機會,往往也可以對大國予取予求的。 ![帶領土耳其走向世俗化 - Explore | Facebook](https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSXhYP7T28886hvXv6z5onhVtE9pKvBb3MFIQ&usqp=CAU)
後記: 土耳其,因為它獨特的地理位置,自古以來是兵家必爭之地,同時作為伊斯蘭世界世俗化最徹底的國家,也是和基督教國家關係最緊密的穆斯林國家,它作為北約的一份子,擔負著遏製俄羅斯和伊朗的雙重功能,但是它的經濟融入卻長期被歐盟拒絕,加上它內部的很多民族矛盾,和西方國家也有很多的過節,這些都讓土耳其沒有徹底倒向西方,而是再西方國家和俄羅斯,中東國家之間玩平衡木,希望得到利益最大化。 簡單的說,土耳其是宗教相對世俗化,政治基本民主化,經濟希望向歐盟融入,軍事在歐美俄之間保持平衡,它充分發揮了它的地緣政治優勢,但是也有不少結構性的內部矛盾。 (文章來源於網絡) |